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(1) Revenues expected to be well ahead of consensus estimates
Trefis estimates AAPL's FQ4 2021 revenues to be $100 Bil, well ahead of the consensus estimate of $77.0 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q4
Trefis Estimates for Apple Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 54.7%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Apple's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ4 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to comfortably beat consensus estimates
AAPL's FQ4 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $1.35 per Trefis analysis, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $0.98 by 38%
Estimated EPS- 2021Q4
Trefis Estimates for Apple EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): 80.0%
The chart to the right highlights trends in AAPL's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ4 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 8.3% higher than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $161 for AAPL's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $149.
AAPL Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Apple stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in AAPL stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in AAPL's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Apple's Total Revenues:
Apple's Revenues have seen a slight increase of 3.4% from around $266 Bil in FY2018 to $275 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $366 Bil in FY2021
Total Revenue
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Apple's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
#2. Deriving Apple's Net Income:
Apple's Net Income has decreased from around $60 Bil in FY2018 to $57 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $95 Bil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Apple's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Apple's EPS:
Apple's EPS has increased from $2.98 in FY2018 to $3.27 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $5.59 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
EPS [A÷B]
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Apple's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $161 For Apple's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 28.8x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 EPS of $5.59
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
EPS [A]
P/E Multiple [B]