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The markets have seen a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 declining by almost 15% since March 9th, driven by the growing number of Coronavirus cases in countries outside of China, which is causing mounting concerns that the world could be headed into recession.Accenture saw its stock price fall by 9% over the last 15 trading sessions, (between March 9 and March 27), and by ~25% since early February, roughly in line with the broader markets. Drawing lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, we see Accenture stock declined from levels of around $31 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $23 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying Accenture stock lost as much as 26% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a significantly lower drop than the broader S&P, which fell by as much as 51%Professional services companies' stocks generally move in tandem with the broader market trend and economic growth trends, as a slowdown in overall economic growth is likely to soften demand for external consulting services.In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and compare its performance with the S&P 500.
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.2/19/2020: Signs of effective containment in China and hopes of monetary easing by major central banks helps S&P 500 reach a record high2/20/2020 to 3/27/2020: S&P 500 sees ~25% drop as COVID-19 cases accelerate outside China. Doesn't help that oil prices crashed in mid-March amid Saudi-led price war
Accenture plc Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
ACN stock declined by ~9% between Friday March 9, 2020 and March 27, 2020, and the stock is down by ~25% since February 1, after the WHO declared a global health emergency.
ACN Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
S&P 500 Index Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
The S&P 500 declined by almost 15% between March 9, 2020 and March 27, 2020 and it has fallen by ~25% since February 1.
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Accenture plc Stock Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
Accenture stock declined from levels of around $31 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to $23 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and recovered to levels of about $34 in early 2010.Through the crisis, ACN stock declined almost 26% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a decline significantly less than that of the S&P, which fell by 51%.ACN stock saw a strong recovery from its lows, rising by 45% between March 2009 and January 2010. The growth was slightly slower than the S&P, which rose by about 48% over the same period.
ACN Stock: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
ACN Stock: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
It will recover - however, a final check: Can Accenture plc in fact stay solvent through the Coronavirus crisis?
Are cash from operations going to cover for interest expense and investments needed?
ACN Total Debt
ACN Interest Expense
ACN Cash from Investments (-ve is Cash Used)
ACN Cash from operations
While Accenture stock has declined due to the Coronavirus/Oil Price War crisis, going by trends seen during the 2008 slowdown, it could potentially bounce back as the crisis winds down, albeit at a rate slower than that of the S&P. Based on 2008 crisis comparison, ACN stock could potentially see an upside of around 35% post the current crisis, to levels of around $220.
Accenture plc - ACN
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