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(1) Revenues expected to be slightly ahead of consensus estimates
Trefis estimates ADP's FQ4 2021 revenues to be $3.7 Bil, slightly ahead of the consensus estimate of $3.68 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q4(E)
Trefis Estimates for ADP Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 9.6%
The chart to the right highlights trends in ADP's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ4 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to match consensus estimates
ADP's FQ4 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $1.13 per Trefis analysis, matching the consensus estimate of $1.14
Estimated EPS- 2021Q4(E)
Trefis Estimates for ADP EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): -25.2%
The chart to the right highlights trends in ADP's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ4 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 10% lower than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $185 for ADP's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $206.
ADP Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for ADP stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in ADP stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in ADP's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating ADP's Total Revenues:
ADP's Revenues have seen a increase of 9.5% from around $13 Bil in FY2018 to $15 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $15 Bil in FY2021
Total Revenue
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On ADP's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
Comparing ADP's Total Revenues with that of its Peers
ADP - Total Revenue
Paychex - Total Revenue
#2. Deriving ADP's Net Income:
ADP's Net Income has increased from around $1.9 Bil in FY2018 to $2.5 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $2.6 Bil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On ADP's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining ADP's EPS:
ADP's EPS has increased from $4.28 in FY2018 to $5.71 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $6.13 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
EPS [A÷B]
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating ADP's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $185 For ADP's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 30.2x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 EPS of $6.13
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
EPS [A]
P/E Multiple [B]
Comparing ADP's Historical P/E Multiple with that of its Peers
ADP P/E Multiple
Paychex P/E Multiple