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Trefis has a Price Estimate of $104 for American Express's Stock
Trefis Price Estimate for American Express
What Does American Express Offer?
American Express is a global financial services company, whose principal products and services include charge and credit card products along with travel-related services to consumers and businesses. The company operates a closed-loop payments network, where it acts as an Issuer (financial institutions that issue credit/debit card to customers) and an Acquirer (financial institutions that acquire merchants to increase credit/debit card acceptability).
Retail Customers & Corporates
What Are The Alternatives?
Visa, Mastercard, Capital One, Discover Financial
#1. Estimating American Express's Total Revenues:
American Express's Revenues have seen a significant increase of 18.1% from around $36.9 billion in FY2017 to $43.6 billion in FY2019 and we expect it to fall to $40.7 billion in FY2021
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On American Express's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
Total Revenue [A+B+C]
Global Consumer Services [A]
Global Commercial Services [B]
Global Merchant & Network Services [C]
#2. Deriving American Express's Adjusted Net Income:
American Express's Adjusted Net Income has increased from around $2.6 billion in FY2017 to $6.6 billion in FY2019 and we expect it to fall to $5.1 billion in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by lower revenues and weaker margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On American Express's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Adjusted Net Income [AxB]
Adjusted Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining American Express's Adjusted EPS:
American Express's Adjusted EPS has increased from $2.99 in FY2017 to $7.99 in FY2019 and we expect it to fall to $6.66 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to a reduction in adjusted net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
Adjusted EPS [A÷B]
Adjusted Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating American Express's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $104 For American Express's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 15.7x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 Adjusted EPS of $6.66
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
Adjusted EPS [A]
P/E Multiple [B]