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Citigroup is slated to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results on January 14, 2020. For FY 2019, Trefis estimates that the company will report:
Revenues of $73.9 billion (vs. consensus estimate of $73.8 billion) primarily due to strong revenue growth for Global Consumer Banking.EPS of $7.74 (vs. consensus estimate of $7.70) due to a combination of higher revenues and slightly lower growth in expenses, improving the net income margin.
We believe that stronger-than-expected revenues and earnings for FY 2019 will very likely result in Citigroup's stock price increasing once earnings are announced. In fact, our forecast indicates that Citigroup's valuation is $82 a share, which is roughly 5% above its current price of $79.
(1) Revenues expected to be slightly above consensus estimates
Trefis estimates Citigroup's 2019 revenues to be $73.9 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate of $73.8 billion
Trefis Estimate of Total Revenues
(1) Institutional Client Group $36.8 Bil (50%)
(2) Global Consumer Banking $35.3 Bil (48%)
(3) Corporate / Other $1.8 Bil (2%)
-------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL $73.9 Bil
Consensus $73.8 Bil
Surprise $ 0.1 Bil
(2) EPS likely to narrowly beat consensus estimates
Citigroup's 2019 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $7.74 per Trefis analysis, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $7.70 per share
EPS - 2019E
Total Revenues $73.9 Bil
- Total Expenses $56.5 Bil (*)
-------------------------------------------------
Net Income $17.4 Bil (**)
÷ Shares Outstanding 2.3 Bil
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EPS $7.74
Consensus $7.70
Surprise $0.04
(*) - The expense figure includes preferred dividend and other minority expenses
(**) - Numbers don't add up due to rounding
(3) Stock price estimate ~5% higher than market price
Trefis forecast for Citigroup's 2019 earnings as well as P/E multiple are slightly higher than market expectations, working out to a fair value of $82 for Citigroup's stock as opposed to the current market price around $79
Citigroup's Share Price [= A x B]
EPS - 2019E [A]
Trailing P/E Multiple [B]
Related Analysis
Citigroup Stock (NYSE:C)Citigroup Revenues: How Does Citigroup Make Money?All Trefis Industrials Company data
Detail about our forecast for Citigroup's (1) Revenues, (2) EPS, and (3) P/E Multiple follow:
Notably, we expect Citigroup's revenue growth rate to slow down over the coming years, falling from 2% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019 to around 1% in 2020.
Our interactive dashboard analysis, How Does Citigroup Make Money?, provides an in depth view of the company's revenues along with our forecasts and a comparison of trends with peers JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.
For 2020, we believe that a slight growth in revenues and expenses will result in the adjusted net income margin figure shrinking marginally to 23.5%
Our interactive dashboard analysis, How Does Citigroup Spend Its Money, provides an in depth view of the company's expenses.
(3) A trailing P/E multiple of 10.6x looks appropriate for Citigroup's stock, as opposed to the current implied P/E multiple of 10.3x
We use our full cash flow model for Citigroup to arrive at a P/E multiple of 10.6x for a price estimate of $82
Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year, and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year
P/E Multiple Citigroup
P/E Multiple BAC
P/E Multiple JPM
P/E Multiple Goldman
1. How to save your forecasts for Bristol-Myers Squibb:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
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