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In the last couple of weeks the stock markets saw their biggest sell off since the 1987 crash.There were two distinct trends driving the recent continued sell-off. Firstly, the increasing number of COVID-19 cases across the world is causing mounting concerns of a global economic slowdown. Secondly, crude oil prices plummeted by more than 20% after Saudi Arabia increased production.Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) stock has fallen almost 8.2% since March 8, 2020 and is down by a total of 23.4% since early February, considering the impact that the outbreak and a broader economic slowdown could have on Food & Beverage industry.Moreover, Chipotle's presence is highly concentrated in North America and particularly in the US which is one of highly affected regions currently.However, going by the trends seen during the 2008 economic slowdown, it's likely that Chipotle would perform strongly and likely outperform S&P 500 as the crisis winds down.In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and compare its performance with the S&P 500.
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.2/3/2020 to 3/23/2020: S&P 500 sees ~30% drop as Coronavirus cases accelerated outside China during March 2020. Doesn't help that oil prices crash in mid-March, amid Saudi-led price war
Chipotle Mexican Grill Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
CMG Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
S&P 500 Index Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
Chipotle's stock declined from levels of around $122.51 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $54.63 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and recovered to levels of about $88.16 in early 2010.Through the crisis, Chipotle stock declined by as much as 55% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a higher decline than the S&P which fell by as much as 51%.However, the stock recovered strongly, rising by 61% between March 2009 and January 2010. In comparison, the S&P rose by about 48% over the same period.
CMG Stock: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
CMG Stock: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
It will recover - however, a final check: Can Chipotle Mexican Grill in fact stay solvent through the Coronavirus crisis?
Are cash from operations going to cover for investments needed?
CMG Cash from Investments (-ve is Cash Used)
CMG Cash from operations
While Chipotle's stock has declined due to the Coronavirus/Oil Price War crisis, going by trends seen during the 2008 slowdown, it is likely that it could bounce back strongly and potentially have an upside of as much as 30% as the crisis winds down.
Chipotle Mexican Grill
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