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(1) Revenues expected to be well ahead of consensus estimates
Trefis estimates COF's Q2 2021 revenues to be $7.46 Bil, well ahead of the consensus estimate of $7.04 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q2(E)
Trefis Estimates for Capital One Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 18%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Capital One's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for Q2 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to miss consensus estimates
COF's Q2 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $-0.21 per Trefis analysis, missing the consensus estimate of $3.75 by 106%
Estimated EPS- 2021Q2(E)
Trefis Estimates for Capital One EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): -90.5%
The chart to the right highlights trends in COF's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for Q2 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 2.1% higher than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $157 for COF's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $154.
COF Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Capital One stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in COF stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in COF's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Capital One's Total Revenues:
Capital One's Revenues have seen a marginal increase of 1.6% from around $28 Bil in FY2018 to $29 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $29 Bil in FY2021
Total Revenue
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Capital One's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
#2. Deriving Capital One's Adjusted Net Income:
Capital One's Adjusted Net Income has decreased from around $5.7 Bil in FY2018 to $2.4 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $6.6 Bil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Capital One's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Adjusted Net Income [AxB]
Adjusted Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Capital One's Adjusted EPS:
Capital One's Adjusted EPS has decreased from $11.82 in FY2018 to $5.18 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $14.89 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in adjusted net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
Adjusted EPS [A÷B]
Adjusted Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Capital One's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $157 For Capital One's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 10.5x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 Adjusted EPS of $14.89
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
Adjusted EPS [A]
P/E Multiple [B]