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In the last couple of weeks the stock markets saw their biggest sell off since the 1987 crash.There were two distinct trends driving the recent continued sell-off. Firstly, the increasing number of Coronavirus cases across the world is causing mounting concerns of a global economic slowdown. Secondly, crude oil prices plummeted by more than 20% after Saudi Arabia increased production.Salesforce.com's (NYSE:CRM) stock has fallen 6.4% from March 8, 2020,
and is down by a total of 12.7% since early February, considering the impact that the outbreak and a broader economic slowdown could have on software and web services industries.Moreover, Salesforce.com has a presence all over the globe including regions worst hit by the outbreak like China, Europe and US.However, going by the trends seen during the 2008 economic slowdown, it's likely that Salesforce's stock could bounce back strongly and potentially outperform the market as the crisis winds down.In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and compare its performance with the S&P 500.
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.2/3/2020 to 3/23/2020: S&P 500 sees ~30% drop as Coronavirus cases accelerated outside China during March 2020. Doesn't help that oil prices crash in mid-March, amid Saudi-led price war
salesforce.com Inc Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
CRM Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
S&P 500 Index Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Salesforce.com Stock Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
Salesforce.com's stock declined from levels of around $13 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $7 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and went up to over $18 in early 2010.Through the crisis, Salesforce's stock declined by as much as 47% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a lower decline than the S&P which fell by as much as 51%.However, the stock went up strongly, rising by 163% between March 2009 and January 2010. In comparison, the S&P rose by about 48% over the same period.
CRM Stock: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
CRM Stock: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
It will recover - however, a final check: Can salesforce.com Inc in fact stay solvent through the Coronavirus crisis?
Are cash from operations going to cover for interest expense and investments needed?
CRM Total Debt
CRM Interest Expense
CRM Cash from Investments (-ve is Cash Used)
CRM Cash from operations
While Salesforce's stock has declined due to the Coronavirus/Oil Price War crisis, going by trends seen during the 2008 slowdown, it is likely that it could bounce back strongly and recover by 30% as the crisis winds down.
salesforce.com Inc - CRM2008 vs. 2020 Crisis Comparison: Amazon Stock vs S&P 500?2007-08 vs. 2020 Crisis Comparison: Microsoft Stock vs. the S&P 500Forecasting US COVID-19 cases with cross-country comparisons-28% Coronavirus crash vs 4 Historic crashes Coronavirus impact and timing analyses