Consider two situations,
Case 1: Fastenal stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Fastenal stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the price forecast for Fastenal stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
FAST stock fares better after Case 1, with an expected return of 3.1% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an expected return of 2.8% for Case 2. This implies a price forecast of $57.34 in Case 1 and a figure of $57.16 in Case 2 using FAST market price of $55.62 on 10/14/2021.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an expected return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the expected return for the S&P 500 after a rise or drop.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the forecast for Fastenal stock is likely to changes after any specific gain or loss over a period.