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CORONAVIRUS CRISIS : Since early February Fedex stock has moved -13.6% compared to -4.5% for the United Parcel Service.FedEx's stock has declined by about 14% since early February, compared to 4% for UPS, after the WHO declared a global health emergency relating to Coronavirus.FedEx stock declined 3%, while UPS stock is up 4% since March 8th, as U.S. cases accelerated.
Fedex% Change For Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
United Parcel Service% Change For Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: From 2009-2019 Fedex stock has grown at 0.5x the rate of the United Parcel Service
Fedex stock went from $77 at the end of 2009 to $150 at the end of 2019, representing a change of 96%.
During the same time period, the United Parcel Service went from $42 to $116 representing a change of 175%.
This implies that Fedex stock grew at 0.5x the rate of United Parcel Service
FDX Stock Price
UPS Stock Price
FDX Stock Price Annualized Rate of Return
UPS Stock Price Annualized Rate of Return
ANALYSIS: Is Fedex stock expensive based on a review of the fundamentals?
P/E Ratio: Based on trailing 2019 P/E ratios, FDX stock looks cheaper compared to prior years and cheaper compared to United Parcel Service
FedEx's current P/E multiple (based on 2019 results) stands at about 8x, compared to about 13x for UPS.
* P/E Ratio is calculated based on year end market price and trailing adjusted earnings. However, for 2020 P/E, we use 2019 adjusted earnings and current market price.
Historical Revenue Growth: FedEx's revenue growth over the last 6 years was higher than UPS'
Fedex 2014-19 annualized revenue growth of 9% is 2.3x that of the 2014-19 UPS' annualized revenue growth rate of 4.9%.
2014-19 Annualized Revenue Growth Comparison
FDX Annual Change in Revenue
UPS Annual Change In Revenue
Historical EPS Growth: FedEx's EPS growth was also higher than UPS'
Fedex 2014-19 annualized EPS growth of 14% is 1.8x that of the 2014-19 UPS' annualized EPS growth rate of 8%.
2014-19 Annualized EPS Growth Comparison
FDX Adjusted EPS Growth
UPS Adjusted EPS Growth - Total Debt / Adjusted EBITDA
Survival Check: Total Debt Comparisons
Fedex Total Debt has increased from $14 billion to $17 between 2016 and 2019. In comparison, Total Debt for United Parcel Service has risen from $16 billion to $25 billion over the same period.
FDX Total Debt
UPS Total Debt
Based on historical performance, FedEx appears to be more attractive compared to UPS in the current crisis. Both the companies' stocks have been more resilient through the crisis, thus far, and FedEx could see a larger upside if the health crisis abates, considering its revenue and EPS growth has been higher than UPS. FedEx is less leveraged compared to UPS, and both the companies have enough cash from operations to manage their near term interest expenses. Moreover, FedEx's P/E ratio is lower compared to its own historical P/E ratio, as well as that of UPS.
FDX Valuation: How Does FedEx Corporation's Valuation Compare To Its Peers?
FDX Revenues: How Does FedEx Make Money?
How Does FedEx Corporation Spend Its Money?
FedEx Valuation: Expensive Or Cheap?
Fedex (FDX) Stock: What's the Chance for a 10% Rebound or Reversion?
Fedex - FDX
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