com.insightguru.giraffe.server.utils.PresentationUtil$PresentationTitle@1642a2e4
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(1) Revenues expected to be well below consensus estimates
Trefis estimates HOG's FQ1 2021 revenues to be $1.17 Bil, well below the consensus estimate of $1.24 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Harley-Davidson Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): -10.1%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Harley-Davidson's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ1 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to miss consensus estimates
HOG's FQ1 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $0.07 per Trefis analysis, missing the consensus estimate of $0.87 by 92%
Estimated EPS- 2021Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Harley-Davidson EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): -85.7%
The chart to the right highlights trends in HOG's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ1 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate largely around current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $41 for HOG's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $41.
HOG Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Harley-Davidson stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in HOG stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in HOG's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Harley-Davidson's Total Revenues:
Harley-Davidson's Revenues have seen a significant decrease of -29.1% from around $5.7 Bil in FY2018 to $4.1 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $5.0 Bil in FY2021
Total Revenue
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Harley-Davidson's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
Comparing Harley-Davidson's Total Revenues with that of its Peers
Harley-Davidson - Total Revenue
Tata Motors - Total Revenue
#2. Deriving Harley-Davidson's Net Income:
Harley-Davidson's Net Income has decreased from around $532 Mil in FY2018 to $1.3 Mil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $195 Mil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Harley-Davidson's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Harley-Davidson's EPS:
Harley-Davidson's EPS has decreased from $3.19 in FY2018 to $0.01 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $1.27 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
EPS [A÷B]
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Harley-Davidson's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $41 For Harley-Davidson's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 32.0x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 EPS of $1.27
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
EPS [A]
P/E Multiple [B]