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PeriodLI ReturnS&P 500 ReturnEvent ProbabilityChance Of Rise
In Next Equivalent Period
5-day-5.5%-1%16%49%10-day-8.5%-0.4%15%47%21-day2.1%3.9%25%61%
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'Event' refers to LI return >= to observed return within specified period; 'Equivalent Period' refers to same period as that specified for past return
Periods specified in trading days; 5-day = 5 trading days
Calculation of 'Event Probability' and 'Chance of Rise' using last 2 year data
[1] -5.5% or higher return during 5-day period in 67 times out of 426; Stock rose in the next 5 days in 33 of these 67 instances
[2] -8.5% or higher return during 10-day period in 64 times out of 426; Stock rose in the next 10 days in 30 of these 64 instances
[3] 2.1% or higher return during 21-day period in 105 times out of 425; Stock rose in the next 21 days in 64 of these 105 instances