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(1) Revenues expected to be well ahead of consensus estimates
Trefis estimates LULU's FQ4 2021 revenues to be $1.91 Bil, well ahead of the consensus estimate of $1.66 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Lululemon Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 192.2%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Lululemon's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ4 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to comfortably beat consensus estimates
LULU's FQ4 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $4.5 per Trefis analysis, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $2.49 by 81%
Estimated EPS- 2021Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Lululemon EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): 97.4%
The chart to the right highlights trends in LULU's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ4 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 8.8% higher than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $352 for LULU's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $323.
LULU Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Lululemon stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in LULU stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in LULU's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Lululemon's Total Revenues:
Lululemon's Revenues have seen a substantial increase of 33.9% from around $3.3 Bil in FY2018 to $4.4 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $5.7 Bil in FY2021
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Lululemon's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
Comparing Lululemon's Total Revenues with that of its Peers
Lululemon - Total Revenue
Ralph Lauren - Total Revenue
#2. Deriving Lululemon's Net Income:
Lululemon's Net Income has increased from around $484 Mil in FY2018 to $589 Mil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $846 Mil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Lululemon's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Lululemon's EPS:
Lululemon's EPS has increased from $3.61 in FY2018 to $4.5 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $6.49 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Lululemon's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $352 For Lululemon's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 54.2x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 EPS of $6.49
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
P/E Multiple [B]