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Restaurant stocks have been particularly badly impacted by the ongoing Coronavirus/oil price crisis, as the companies are facing fall in sales due to slowdown in economic activity and shutdowns of restaurants, while the ones open work on takeout-only mode. McDonald's stock is down by more than 12.6% since early February, while its rival Dunkin' Brands has seen its stock drop 27.1% over the same period. Both companies have seen contrasting trends in revenues over the last few years, with McDonald's revenue continuously falling due to re-franchising while Dunkin' Brands revenue base has been steadily rising. Also, over the last 5 years, McDonald's earnings have increased at 10.4% vs. 11.8% for Dunkin' Brands. Further, P/E multiple for McDonald's has been largely lower than Dunkin' Brands, reflecting better market sentiment for Dunkin' Brands.While the outlook for both companies remains tough, as consumer demand and spending is expected to remain low due to of the current pandemic, at least until the time there is confirmation of containment of the virus. McDonald's relatively higher stockholder's deficit burden (8.2 billion to 0.6 billion for Dunkin' Brands in 2019) is a concern, whereas Dunkin' Brands improving revenue along with improving earnings give it an advantage. McDonald's current P/E is higher (23.4x vs 20.8x for Dunkin' Brands) which makes Dunkin' Brands a cheaper proposition for an investor.
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS : Since early February, McDonald's stock has moved -12.6% compared to -21.7% for Dunkin' Brands Group.
McDonald's stock has declined by about 12.6% since early February, compared to 21.7% for Dunkin' Brands, after the WHO declared a global health emergency relating to Coronavirus on 31st Jan 2020.McDonald's stock has fallen by about 6.5% since March 8th, while Dunkin' Brands has declined by about 9.8%.
McDonald's % Change For Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
Dunkin' Brands Group % Change For Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE: From 2011-2019 McDonald's stock has grown at 0.6x the rate of Dunkin' Brands Group
McDonald's stock went from $79 at the end of 2011 to $196 at the end of 2019, representing a change of 148%.
During the same time period, the Dunkin' Brands Group went from $21 to $75 representing a change of 257%.
This implies that McDonald's stock grew at 0.6x the rate of Dunkin' Brands Group
MCD Stock Price
DNKN Stock Price
McDonald's stock's annualized rate of return was higher compared to Dunkin for 2014-19
2014-19 (MCD=19.4% vs. DNKN=14.6%)
Note: Dunkin' Brands was listed in 2011
MCD Stock Price Annualized Rate of Return
DNKN Stock Price Annualized Rate of Return
ANALYSIS: Is McDonald's stock expensive based on a review of the fundamentals?
P/E Ratio: Based on trailing 2019 P/E ratios, MCD stock looks expensive compared to prior years and comparable to Dunkin' Brands Group
McDonald's 2019 trailing P/E ratio of 24.7x is 0.96x that of the 2019 Dunkin' Brands Group P/E ratio of 25.7x.
* P/E Ratio is calculated based on year end market price and trailing earnings. However, for 2020 P/E, we use 2019 earnings and current market price.
Historical Revenue Growth: McDonald's stock looks less attractive compared to Dunkin' Brands Group
McDonald's 2014-19 annualized revenue growth of -5% is -1.31x that of the 2014-19 S&P 500 annualized revenue growth rate of 3.9%.
2014-19 Annualized Revenue Growth Comparison
MCD Annual Change in Revenue
DNKN Annual Change In Revenue
Historical EPS Growth: McDonald's stock looks less attractive compared to Dunkin' Brands Group
McDonald's 2014-19 annualized EPS growth of 10% is 1.8x that of the 2014-19 S&P 500 annualized EPS growth rate of 5.7%.
2014-19 Annualized EPS Growth Comparison
MCD Annual Change in EPS
DNKN Annual Change in EPS
Survival Check: Total Debt Comparisons
McDonald's Total Debt has increased from $26 billion to $34.2 billion between 2016 and 2019. In comparison, Total Debt for Dunkin' Brands Group has risen from $2.4 billion to $3 billion
MCD Total Debt
DNKN Total Debt
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