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The markets have seen a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 declining by about 18% since March 9th, driven by the growing number of Coronavirus cases in countries outside of China, which is causing mounting concerns that the world could be headed into recession.Micron Technology saw its stock price fall by 16% over the last 11 trading sessions, (between March 9 and March 23), and by ~18% since early February, out-performing the broader markets. Drawing lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, we see Micron's stock declined from levels of around $11 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $3 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying Micron's stock lost as much as 71% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a sharper drop than the broader S&P, which fell by as much as 51%Memory storage companies' stocks generally move in tandem with the broader market trend and economic growth trends, as a slowdown in overall economic growth is likely to soften demand for external hardware and storage products.In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and compare its performance with the S&P 500.
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.2/3/2020 to 3/24/2020: S&P 500 sees ~26% drop as Coronavirus cases accelerated outside China during March 2020. Doesn't help that oil prices crash in mid-March, amid Saudi-led price war
Micron Technology Stock Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
Micron stock declined by ~16% between Friday March 9, 2020, and March 24, 2020, and the stock is down by almost 19% since February 1, after the WHO declared a global health emergency.
MU Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
S&P 500 Index Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
The S&P 500 declined by 18% between March 9, 2020 and March 24, 2020 and it has fallen by over 26% since February 1.
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Micron Technology Stock Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
Micron stock declined from levels of around $11 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to $3 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and recovered to levels of about $10 in early 2010.Through the crisis, Micron stock declined about 72% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a decline steeper than that of the S&P, which fell by 51%.Micron's stock saw a strong recovery from its lows, rising by 228% between March 2009 and January 2010. The growth was much higher than the S&P, which rose by about 48% over the same period.
MU Stock: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
MU Stock: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
It will recover - however, a final check: Can Micron Technology in fact stay solvent through the Coronavirus crisis?
Are cash from operations going to cover for interest expense and investments needed?
MU Total Debt
MU Interest Expense
MU Cash from Investments (-ve is Cash Used)
MU Cash from operations
While Micron's stock has declined due to the Coronavirus/Oil Price War crisis, going by trends seen during the 2008 slowdown, it's likely that it could bounce back strongly and potentially outperform as the crisis winds down. Based on 2008 crisis comparison, Micron stock could potentially fully recover to pre-coronavirus crisis levels, implying an upside of 40% post the current crisis.
What's Driving The Rally In Micron's Stock?
Micron Valuation: Expensive Or Cheap?
How Does Micron Spend Its Money?
Micron Technology - MU
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment