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(1) Revenues expected to be in line with consensus estimates
Trefis estimates NSC's FQ1 2021 revenues to be $2.74 Bil, in line with the consensus estimate of $2.74 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Norfolk Southern Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 4.4%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Norfolk Southern's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ1 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to marginally beat consensus estimates
NSC's FQ1 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $2.97 per Trefis analysis, marginally beating the consensus estimate of $2.94 by 1.0%
Estimated EPS- 2021Q1(E)
Trefis Estimates for Norfolk Southern EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): 100.7%
The chart to the right highlights trends in NSC's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for FQ1 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 9.4% higher than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $290 for NSC's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $265.
NSC Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Norfolk Southern stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in NSC stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in NSC's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Norfolk Southern's Total Revenues:
Norfolk Southern's Revenues have seen a decrease of -14.6% from around $11 Bil in FY2018 to $9.8 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $11 Bil in FY2021
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Norfolk Southern's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
Comparing Norfolk Southern's Total Revenues with that of its Peers
Norfolk Southern - Total Revenue
Union Pacific - Total Revenue
#2. Deriving Norfolk Southern's Net Income:
Norfolk Southern's Net Income has decreased from around $2.7 Bil in FY2018 to $2.0 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $2.9 Bil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Norfolk Southern's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Norfolk Southern's EPS:
Norfolk Southern's EPS has decreased from $9.51 in FY2018 to $7.83 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $11.5 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Norfolk Southern's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $290 For Norfolk Southern's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 25.2x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 EPS of $11.5
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
P/E Multiple [B]
Comparing Norfolk Southern's Historical P/E Multiple with that of its Peers
Norfolk Southern P/E Multiple
Union Pacific P/E Multiple