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PeriodOSTK ReturnS&P 500 ReturnEvent ProbabilityChance Of Rise
In Next Equivalent Period
5-day-12%1.4%8%48%10-day-1%2.5%45%47%21-day-8.1%2.7%31%44%
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'Event' refers to OSTK return >= to observed return within specified period; 'Equivalent Period' refers to same period as that specified for past return
Periods specified in trading days; 5-day = 5 trading days
Calculation of 'Event Probability' and 'Chance of Rise' using last 10 year data
[1] -12% or higher return during 5-day period in 194 times out of 2516; Stock rose in the next 5 days in 93 of these 194 instances
[2] -1% or higher return during 10-day period in 1144 times out of 2516; Stock rose in the next 10 days in 539 of these 1144 instances
[3] -8.1% or higher return during 21-day period in 786 times out of 2516; Stock rose in the next 21 days in 347 of these 786 instances
Predict average return on Overstock.com (OSTK) Stock Return: AI Predicts OSTK Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise