------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PeriodSPCE ReturnS&P 500 ReturnEvent ProbabilityChance Of Rise
In Next Equivalent Period
5-day-20%1.7%3%53%10-day22%4.5%8%59%21-day45%3.6%6%35%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'Event' refers to SPCE return >= to observed return within specified period; 'Equivalent Period' refers to same period as that specified for past return
Periods specified in trading days; 5-day = 5 trading days
Calculation of 'Event Probability' and 'Chance of Rise' using last 6 year data
[1] -20% or higher return during 5-day period in 36 times out of 1428; Stock rose in the next 5 days in 19 of these 36 instances
[2] 22% or higher return during 10-day period in 115 times out of 1428; Stock rose in the next 10 days in 68 of these 115 instances
[3] 45% or higher return during 21-day period in 88 times out of 1428; Stock rose in the next 21 days in 31 of these 88 instances
Predict average return on Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) Stock Return: AI Predicts SPCE Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise