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SUMMARY
On Monday, March 16, the stock markets fell 12%, the biggest sell-off since 1987, and one of the biggest drops of all time. Although markets recovered around 6% on Tuesday, March 17, on expectations for massive federal stimulus to address the ongoing economic crisis, it again fell 5% on March 18th, before reporting a marginal increase on 19th March.There were two distinct trends driving the sell-off. Firstly, the increasing number of Coronavirus cases in the U.S and other countries outside China is causing mounting concerns of a global economic slowdown (on Wednesday, March 11, WHO declared coronavirus a pandemic outbreak creating further panic in the markets). Secondly, a sharp decline in crude oil prices after Saudi Arabia increased production in a price war with Russia spooked the investors further.Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) stock fell around 10% between March 9 and March 19, and almost 16% since early February, considering the impact that the outbreak and a broader economic slowdown could have on the semiconductor business.Going by the trends seen during the 2008 economic slowdown, it's likely that TXN stock could see a strong recovery, and it will likely outperform the broader markets when the crisis winds down.In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and compare its performance with the S&P 500.
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.3/9/2020 to 3/19/2020: S&P 500 sees ~19% drop over the last 9 trading days, as U.S. cases accelerate and oil prices crash, amid Saudi led price war.
Texas Instruments Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
Between March 9th and March 19th, TI's stock has declined by over 10% and is down by almost 16% since February 1, after the WHO declared a global health emergency
TXN Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
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S&P 500 Index Performance 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
Over the same period, the S&P 500 has declined by almost 19% and is down over 25% since February 1, after the global health emergency was declared by the WHO.
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
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% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
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2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009 - Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010 - Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Texas Instruments Stock Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
TI's stock declined from levels of over $27 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $11 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and recovered to levels of over $20 in early 2010. Throughout the crisis, TI's stock declined by as much as 60% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a decline faster than that of the S&P which fell by around 51%.However, the stock also recovered relatively faster, rising by 84% between March 2009 and January 2010. In comparison, the S&P rose by about 48% over the same period.
TXN Stock: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
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% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
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TXN Stock: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
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S&P 500 Performance Over The 2007-08 Financial Crisis
The S&P declined from levels of around 1540 in October 2007 to levels of around 760 in March 2009 and recovered to levels of 1120 by January 2010. Through the crisis, the S&P declined by as much as 51% from its approximate pre-crisis peak.
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
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% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
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S&P 500 Index: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
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Related Analyses
Texas Instruments: Why has the stock gained more than 70% in the last 3 years?
Texas Instruments Pre-Earnings: Will TI's weak FY 2019 numbers, result in stock price falling post earnings release?
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