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(1) Revenues expected to be slightly below consensus estimates
Trefis estimates UNP's Q2 2021 revenues to be $5.25 Bil, slightly below the consensus estimate of $5.33 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q2(E)
Trefis Estimates for Union Pacific Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 23.7%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Union Pacific's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for Q2 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to miss consensus estimates
UNP's Q2 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $2.35 per Trefis analysis, missing the consensus estimate of $2.5 by 6.0%
Estimated EPS- 2021Q2(E)
Trefis Estimates for Union Pacific EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): 40.7%
The chart to the right highlights trends in UNP's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for Q2 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 17% higher than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $250 for UNP's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $214.
UNP Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Union Pacific stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in UNP stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in UNP's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Union Pacific's Total Revenues:
Union Pacific's Revenues have seen a decrease of -14.5% from around $23 Bil in FY2018 to $20 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $21 Bil in FY2021
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Union Pacific's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
Comparing Union Pacific's Total Revenues with that of its Peers
Union Pacific - Total Revenue
Norfolk Southern - Total Revenue
#2. Deriving Union Pacific's Net Income:
Union Pacific's Net Income has decreased from around $6.0 Bil in FY2018 to $5.3 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $6.4 Bil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Union Pacific's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Union Pacific's EPS:
Union Pacific's EPS has decreased from $7.91 in FY2018 to $7.88 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $9.6 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a lower expected share count due to stock repurchases.
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Union Pacific's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $250 For Union Pacific's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 26.0x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 EPS of $9.6
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
P/E Multiple [B]
Comparing Union Pacific's Historical P/E Multiple with that of its Peers
Union Pacific P/E Multiple
Norfolk Southern P/E Multiple