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stock is likely to outperform the broader S&P 500 index post coronavirus and oil price war crisis, going by the trends seen during the 2008 slowdown, where it fell 25% from the approximate pre-crisis peak in 2008, and recovered 110% by early 2010.Although the decline in Urban Outfitter's stock was lower, the recovery was higher than that of the S&P 500.In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and also compare its performance with the S&P 500
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.2/3/2020 to 3/23/2020: S&P 500 sees ~30% drop as Coronavirus cases accelerated outside China during March 2020. To make things worse, oil prices crash in mid-March, amid Saudi-led price war
Urban Outfitters Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
URBN Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
S&P 500 Index Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Urban Outfitters Stock versus the S&P 500 During 2007-08 Financial CrisisDrawing lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, we see Urban Outfitters' stock declined from levels of around $22 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $17 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out). Implying URBN stock lost as much as 25% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a lesser decline than the broader S&P, which fell by as much as 51%.
S&P 500 Performance Over The 2007-08 Financial Crisis
The S&P declined from levels of around 1540 in October 2007 to levels of around 760 in March 2009, and recovered to levels of 1120 by January 2010. Through the crisis, the S&P declined by as much as 51% from its approximate pre-crisis peak.
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
S&P 500 Index: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
It will recover - however, a final check: Can Urban Outfitters in fact stay solvent through the Coronavirus crisis?
Are cash from operations going to cover for interest expense and investments needed?
URBN Cash from Investments (-ve is Cash Used)
URBN Cash from operations
While Urban Outfitters' stock has declined due to the Coronavirus crisis, going by trends seen during the 2008 slowdown, it's possible that it could bounce back strongly and potentially outperform as the crisis winds down.
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