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SUMMARY
The markets have seen a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 declining by about 17% since March 9th, driven by the growing number of Coronavirus cases in countries outside of China, which is causing mounting concerns that the world could be headed into recession.Western Digital Corporation saw its stock price fall by 24% over the last 11 trading sessions, (between March 9 and March 23), and by over 36% since early February, under-performing the broader markets. Drawing lessons from the 2008 financial crisis, we see WDC stock declined from levels of around $20 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to levels of around $11 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying WDC stock lost over 45% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a lower drop than the broader S&P, which fell by as much as 51%Hardware storage companies' stocks generally move in tandem with the broader market trend and economic growth trends, as a slowdown in overall economic growth is likely to soften demand for external hardware and storage products.However, this time around WDC stock has taken a bigger hit, as the shutdown in China has hampered H1 2020 production. In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and compare its performance with the S&P 500.
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.2/3/2020 to 3/25/2020: S&P 500 sees ~26% drop as COVID-19 cases accelerate outside China. Doesn't help that oil prices crash in mid-March amid Saudi-led price war
Western Digital Stock Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
WDC stock declined by 24% between Friday March 9, 2020 and March 23, 2020, and the stock is down by over 36% since February 1, after the WHO declared a global health emergency.
WDC Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
S&P 500 Index Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
The S&P 500 declined by ~17% between March 9, 2020 and March 20, 2020 and it has fallen by more than 25% since February 1.
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Western Digital Stock Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
Western Digital
stock declined from levels of around $20 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to $11 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and recovered to levels of about $36 in early 2010.Through the crisis, WDC stock declined about 45% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a decline slightly less than that of the S&P, which fell by 51%.WDC stock saw a strong recovery from its lows, rising by 223% between March 2009 and January 2010. The growth was much higher than the S&P, which rose by about 48% over the same period.
WDC Stock: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
WDC Stock: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
Survival Check
It will recover - however, a final check: Can Western Digital in fact stay solvent through the Coronavirus crisis?
Are cash from operations going to cover for interest expense and investments needed?
WDC Total Debt
WDC Interest Expense
WDC Cash from Investments (-ve is Cash Used)
WDC Cash from operations
Conclusion
While Western Digital Corporation's stock has declined due to the Coronavirus/Oil Price War crisis, going by trends seen during the 2008 slowdown, it's possible that it could potentially bounce back strongly and outperform as the crisis winds down. Based on 2008 crisis comparison, WDC stock could possibly see a full recovery and further gains to around the $80 level.
Related Analyses
Western Digital Revenue: How Does WDC Make Money?
A Look At The Trend In Western Digital's Exabytes Shipped And How It Has Affected Revenues
Western Digital Valuation: Expensive Or Cheap?
How Does Western Digital Spend Its Money?
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