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The markets have seen a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 declining by about 23% since March 9th, driven by the growing number of Coronavirus cases in countries outside of China, which is causing mounting concerns that the world could be headed into recession.Avis Budget Group, saw its stock price fall by 44% over the last 11 trading sessions, (between March 9, and March 23), and by 59% since early February, underperforming the broader markets. The rental car market is being badly impacted by the current pandemic, and Avis has indicated that reservations are down ~60% for April and beyond, noting that there is potential for further declines.However, going by Avis stock's performance over the 2008 crisis (when it fell 98% from the pre-crisis peak and jumped 3,000% from the market bottom ), its possible that it could post a strong recovery as the current health crisis abates.In this analysis, we take a look at how the company’s stock reacted to the economic crisis of 2008 and compare its performance with the S&P 500.
2020 Coronavirus/ Oil Price War Crisis
Timeline of 2020 Crisis So Far
12/12/2019: Coronavirus cases first reported in China.1/31/2020: WHO declares global health emergency.2/3/2020 to 3/23/2020: S&P 500 sees ~30% drop as Coronavirus cases accelerated outside China during March 2020. It also doesn't help that oil prices have crashed by close to 50% over the last month, amid Saudi-led price war.
Avis Budget Group Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War CrisisAvis stock declined by -44.5% between Friday March 9, 2020, and March 23, 2020, and the stock is down by 59% since February 1, after the WHO declared a global health emergency relating to the Coronavirus.
CAR Stock: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
S&P 500 Index Performance During 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War CrisisThe S&P 500 declined by 25% between March 9, 2020 and March 20, 2020 and it has fallen by 33% since February 1.
S&P 500 Index: Key Values During 2020 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2020 Crisis
2007-08 Financial Crisis
Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis
10/1/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&P 500 index9/1/2008 - 10/1/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9/15/08)3/1/2009 - Approximate bottoming out of S&P 500 index1/1/2010 - Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9/1/2008)
Avis Budget Group Stock Performance Over 2007-08 Financial Crisis
Avis Budget Group stock declined from levels of around $24 in October 2007 (the pre-crisis peak) to just $0.40 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out) and recovered to levels of about $12 in early 2010.Through the crisis,
Avis Budget Group stock declined over -98% from its approximate pre-crisis peak. This marked a decline that was significantly below the S&P, which fell by as much as -51%.Avis stock saw a strong recovery from its lows, rising by over 3180% between March 2009 and January 2010. The growth was much higher than the S&P, which rose by about 48% over the same period.
CAR Stock: Key Values During 2007-08 Crisis
% Change for Key Dates: 2007-08 Crisis
CAR Stock: Cumulative % Change from 10/1/2007
Survival Check Can Avis Budget Group in fact stay solvent through the Coronavirus crisis?
Total debt has remained relatively steady over the last few years, at roughly $3.5 billion and the company's interest coverage was comfortable over 2019, as it generated $2.6 billion in cash from operations while interest expenses stood at about $180 million.However, cash flows are likely to see a sharp decline through the crisis as bookings fall and this could put the company at some risk.
CAR Interest Expense
CAR Cash from Investments (-ve is Cash Used)
CAR Cash from operations
What Factors Drove -26.5% Change In Avis Budget Group Stock Between 2017 And 2019?
Avis Budget Group - CAR