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Kimberly-Clark is slated to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results on January 23, 2020. For FY2019, Trefis estimates that the company will report:
Revenues of $18.4 billion (vs. consensus estimate of $18.4 billion) slightly lower than $18.49 billion in 2018, due to a drop in personal care revenueEPS of $6.62 (vs. consensus estimate of $6.87), higher than the $4.05 in 2018, due to a combination of lower share count and lower expenses supporting net income margin.
However, we believe that weaker-than-expected earnings for FY2019 will very likely result in Kimberly-Clark's stock falling in price once earnings are announced. In fact, our forecast indicates that Kimberly Clark is valued at $137 a share, which is roughly 5% below its current price of $144.5.
(1) Revenues are expected to be in line with consensus estimates
Trefis estimates KMB's 2019 revenues to be $18.42 billion, in line with consensus estimates of $18.43 billion.
Trefis estimate of Total Revenue
(1) Personal Care $8.97 Bil (49%)
(2) Consumer Tissue $6.03 Bil (33%)
(3) KC Professional $3.43 Bil (18%)
TOTAL $18.4 Bil
Consensus $18.4 Bil
Surprise $0 Bil
(2) EPS likely to miss consensus estimate
KMB's 2019 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $6.62 per Trefis analysis, ~5% lower than the consensus estimate of $6.87 per share
EPS - 2019E
Total Revenues $18.42 Bil
- Total Expenses $16.15 Bil
Net Income $2.27 Bil
÷ Shares Outstanding 343 Mil
(3) Stock price estimate ~5% lower than the market price
Trefis' forecast for KMB's 2019 earnings as well as P/E multiple, are slightly lower than market expectations, working out to a fair value of $137 for KMB's stock as opposed to the current market price around $144.
KMB's Stock Price (AxB)
EPS - 2019E (A)
Trailing P/E Multiple (B)
Details about our forecast for KMB's (1) Revenues, (2) EPS, and (3) P/E Multiple follow:
What about Revenues in 2020?
See Kimberly-Clark Revenue - How Does KMB Make Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's revenues along with our forecasts and a comparison of trends with peers P&G and Unilever.
Key for 2020: We expect KMB's revenue growth rate to rise slightly, driving revenue to $18.66 billion in 2020.
What about Expenses and Earnings in 2020?
See Kimberly-Clark Expenses - How Does KMB Spend Its Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's expenses, and earnings margins
Key for 2020: We believe that a slight increase in revenue coupled with stagnant expenses will result in the net income margin figure rising marginally compared to 2019.
(3) A trailing P/E multiple of 20.7x looks appropriate for KMB's stock, as opposed to the current implied P/E multiple of 21.0x
We use our full cash flow model for Kimberly-Clark to arrive at a P/E multiple of 20.7x for a price estimate of $137
Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year, and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year
KMB's PE Multiple
P&G's PE Multiple
Unilever's PE Multiple
Our complete set of analyses on Kimberly-Clark
DISAGREE WITH OUR FORECASTS? CREATE YOUR OWN
1. How to save your forecasts for Kimberly-Clark:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
With your forecast saved and named, you can compare your forecasts to hundreds of other Trefis users who came up with their own forecasts. Lastly, you can share with friends and colleagues to show them how you fared and compare your forecasts to theirs.