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Advanced Micro Devices is slated to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results on January 28, 2020. For FY2019, Trefis estimates that the company will report:
Revenues of $6.87 billion (vs. consensus estimate of $6.71 billion) slightly higher than $6.47 billion in 2018, due to an equal rise in both segments.EPS of $0.59 (vs. consensus estimate of $0.62), higher than the $0.34 in 2018, due to revenue growing at a higher rate than expenses.
However, we believe that weaker-than-expected earnings for FY 2019 will very likely result in AMD's stock falling in price once earnings are announced. In fact, our forecast indicates that AMD is valued at $45.4 a share, which is roughly 11% below its current price of $51.2.
(1) Revenues are expected to marginally beat consensus estimates
Trefis estimates AMD's 2019 revenues to be $6.87 billion, higher than the consensus estimate of $6.71 billion.
Trefis estimate of Total Revenue
(1) Computing and Graphics $4.33 Bil (63%)
(2) Enterprise, Embedded & Semi-Custom $2.54 Bil (37%)
TOTAL $6.87 Bil
Consensus $6.71 Bil
Surprise $0.16 Bil
(2) EPS likely to miss consensus estimate
AMD's 2019 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $0.59 per Trefis analysis, ~5% lower than the consensus estimate of $0.62 per share
EPS - 2019E
Total Revenues $6.87 Bil
- Total Expenses $6.27 Bil
Net Income $0.6 Bil
÷ Shares Outstanding 1.01 Bil
(3) Stock price estimate ~11% lower than the market price
Trefis' forecast for AMD's 2019 earnings as well as P/E multiple, are slightly lower than market expectations, working out to a fair value of $45.4 for AMD's stock as opposed to the current market price of around $51.2.
AMD's Stock Price (AxB)
EPS - 2019E (A)
Trailing P/E Multiple (B)
Details about our forecast for AMD's (1) Revenues, (2) EPS, and (3) P/E Multiple follow:
(1) Revenue is expected to rise 6% from $6.47 billion in 2018 to $6.87 billion in 2019
An equal rise in Computing & Graphics revenue and Enterprise, Embedded & Semi-Custom revenue, to drive a $400 million rise in AMD's total revenue for 2019.
Total Revenue [A+B]
Computing and Graphics [A]
Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom [B]
What about Revenues in 2020?
See AMD Revenue - How Does AMD Make Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's revenues along with our forecasts and a comparison of trends with peers Intel and Nvidia.
Key for 2020: We expect AMD's revenue growth rate to triple in 2020, driving revenue to $8.19 billion in 2020.
What about Expenses and Earnings in 2020?
See AMD Expenses - How Does AMD Spend Its Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's expenses, and earnings margins
Key for 2020: We believe that an increase in revenue coupled with an almost similar increase in expenses will result in the net income margin figure rising marginally to 8.9% in 2020.
(3) A trailing P/E multiple of 76.9x looks more appropriate for AMD's stock, as opposed to the current implied P/E multiple of 82.6x
We use our full cash flow model for Advanced Micro Devices to arrive at a P/E multiple of 76.9x for a price estimate of $45.
Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year, and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year
AMD's PE Multiple
Intel's PE Multiple
Nvidia's PE Multiple
Our complete set of analyses on Advanced Micro Devices
DISAGREE WITH OUR FORECASTS? CREATE YOUR OWN
1. How to save your forecasts for Advanced Micro Devices:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
With your forecast saved and named, you can compare your forecasts to hundreds of other Trefis users who came up with their own forecasts. Lastly, you can share with friends and colleagues to show them how you fared and compare your forecasts to theirs.