Here are some sample widgets you could interact with from this dashboard:
Norfolk Southern is slated to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results on January 29, 2020. For full year 2019, Trefis estimates that the company will report:Revenues of $11.6 billion, reflecting 1.2% y-o-y growth, primarily driven by the company's merchandise freight segment. Our revenue forecast is higher than the consensus estimate of $11.3 billion.EPS figure will likely grow to $10.51, primarily due to higher revenues, and lower share count, partly offset by a modest growth in expenses, as compared to the previous year. Our EPS figure forecast is much higher than the consensus estimate of $10.03.
While we believe that the company will post better-than-expected earnings for full year 2019, any significant move in stock price is unlikely. In fact, our forecast indicates that Norfolk Southern's valuation is $199 a share, which is slightly below the current market price of around $202.
(1) Revenues Expected To Be Higher Than The Consensus Estimates
Trefis estimates Norfolk Southern's 2019 revenues to be $11.6 billion, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $11.3 billion.
$6.9 Bil (59%)Intermodal
$3.0 Bil (26%)Coal $1.8 Bil (15%)
TOTAL $11.6 Bil
Consensus $11.3 Bil
Surprise $0.3 Bil
(2) EPS Likely To Be Slightly Higher Than The Consensus Estimates
Norfolk Southern's 2019 earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $10.51 per Trefis analysis, higher than the consensus estimate of $10.03 per share.
Earnings Per Share
Total Revenues $11.6 Bil
- Total Expenses $8.8 Bil
Net Income $2.8 Bil
÷ Shares Outstanding 264 Mil
(3) Stock Price Estimate ~ Slightly Below The Current Market Price
Trefis forecast for Norfolk Southern's full year 2019 earnings is slightly higher than the market expectations, but P/E multiple is slightly lower than the consensus, working out to a fair value of $199 for Norfolk Southern's stock, which is slightly below the current market price of around $203.
Price To Earnings Multiple
Earnings Per Share
Detail About Our Forecast For Norfolk Southern (1) Revenues, (2) Adjusted EPS, and (3) P/E Multiple Follow:
(1) Revenues Will Likely Grow To $11.6 Billion In 2019
Total revenues have increased at an average annual rate of 7.6% from $9.9 billion in 2016 to $11.5 billion in 2018, primarily driven by the company's intermodal segment. However, it is expected to see only 1.8% growth in 2019, primarily due to lower coal freight revenues.
Total Revenue = A + B + C
What About Revenues In 2020?
See Norfolk Southern Revenues - How Does NSC Make Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's revenues along with our forecasts.
Key for 2020: Norfolk Southern's revenue will likely grow in low-single-digits on average over 2019-2020, led by its merchandise freight segment.
What About Expenses And Earnings In 2020?
See Norfolk Southern Expenses - How Does NSC Spend Its Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's expenses, and earnings margins
Key for 2020: We believe that revenue will continue to grow in low-single-digits, while expenses could grow at a slower pace when compared to revenues, resulting in the net income margin figure to increase to 24.6%. We currently forecast Norfolk Southern's 2020 EPS to be $11.61.
(3) A Trailing P/E Multiple of 19x Looks Appropriate For Norfolk Southern's Stock, Which Is Slightly Lower Than The Current Implied P/E Multiple of 20x
We use our full cash flow model for Norfolk Southern to arrive at a P/E multiple of 19x for a price estimate of $199
Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year, and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year
Norfolk Southern's P/E
CSX Corporation's P/E
Union Pacific's P/E
Our complete set of analyses on Norfolk Southern
1. How to save your forecasts for Norfolk Southern:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
With your forecast saved and named, you can compare your forecasts to hundreds of other Trefis users who came up with their own forecasts. Lastly, you can share with friends and colleagues to show them how you fared and compare your forecasts to theirs.