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Weight Watchers has achieved steady growth over 2015-2018, with the company’s net income witnessing a 6.8x increase over the same time frame driven by a combination of surging revenues as well as falling expenses (as % of revenues). Though absolute expenses are expected to remain stable in the near term, total expenses as a percentage of revenue are expected to increase in 2019 mainly as a result of a 7% y-o-y decline in total revenues. This should result in Weight Watchers’ earnings margin (this is revenues less all expenses, expressed as a percent) to half, from 14.8% in 2018 to an expected 7.9% in 2019, resulting in a 50% decline in Weight Watchers’ net income.
Total Expenses were $3.7 Billion, with Cost of sales of $2.6 billion, and $1 Billion in Operating Expenses
Breakdown of Urban Outfitter's Total Expenses (2018):
Total: $3.7 Bil
Cost of Goods Sold $2.6 Bil (71%)
Operating Expenses $1.0 Bil (27%)
Income tax expense $0.01 Bil (2%)
Urban Outfitters' Total Expenses Have Increased From $3.2 Billion in 2015 to $3.7 Billion in 2018
% Change in total expenses
Weight Watchers’ total expenses have gone up 14% since 2015, increasing from $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion in 2018 driven by an increase across all operating heads.Total expenses are expected to remain stable in 2019 as a decrease in the cost of sales is likely to be offset by an expected increase in marketing, and SG&A expenses.However, the company’s total expenses as % revenue are projected to increase by 690 basis points, from 85.2% in 2018 to 92.1% in 2019
1. Cost of Sales:
Cost of Sales have increased from $2.2 Bil in 2015 to $2.6 Bil in 2018 mainly due to steady revenue growth. As cost of sales has grown at a faster rate than the revenue, the Gross Profit Margin has contracted from 34.9% to over 34.1% over the same period
Cost of sales
Gross profit margin
The cost of sales primarily consists of expenses to operate studios and workshops, costs to sell consumer products and costs to develop and operate websites and other digital products. The cost of sales is the largest expense driver, accounting for nearly 50% of the company’s total expenses in 2018.The total cost of sales as % of revenues has declined from 50.7% in 2015 to nearly 43% in 2018 driven primarily by the mix shift to the higher-margin Digital business and improved operating leverage across the company’s businesses. However, the cost of sales in absolute terms has increased from $590 million to $648 million over the same time period.Lower cost of sales ( as % of revenues) coupled with steady revenue growth have helped Weight Watchers’ gross margin expand from 49.3% in 2015 to 57.2% in 2018.Going forward, we expect the cost of sales to marginally decline to $626 million in 2019, representing 44.3% of total revenues of $1.4 billion.
2. Operating Expenses :
Urban Outfitters' Operating Expenses Include Selling, General & Administrative (SG&A) Costs
SG&A expenses as % of total revenue
Weight Watchers’ Operating Expenses include SG&A and marketing expenses. Operating expenses have increased 18% since 2015, going up from $406 million in 2015 to $477 million in 2018, led by a $46 million increase in SG&A as well as a $25 million increase in marketing expenses.SG&A expenses have increased 23% over 2015-18, going up from $205 million in 2015 to around $251 million in 2018 driven primarily by higher compensation and incentive-related costs as well as investments in strategic initiatives.Moreover, marketing expenses have consistently increased since 2015 and we expect this trend to carry over in 2019. Higher expenses are likely to be driven by investments in both digital marketing initiatives.Overall, total operating expenses are projected to increase by 5.8% to $505 million in 2019, representing 35.8% of total revenues.
3. Non-Operating Expense (Income) :
Urban Outfitters' Non-Operating Expenses Have Decreased From $4 million in 2015 to -$4 million in 2018 Driven by a combination of higher interest and other income
Non-Operating expenses (income)
Interest Income As % Cash & Cash Equivalents
4. Income Tax Expense:
Urban Outfitters' Income Tax Expense has hovered around $20 million over 2015-2018, apart from 2017 when this metric was -$18 million due to the enactment of the US Tax Reform
Income tax expense (benefit)
Effective tax rate
Weight Watchers' income tax expense has hovered around $20 million over 2015-2018, apart from 2017, when this metric was -$18 million due to the enactment of the US Tax Reform.In addition, the company’s effective tax rate for fiscal 2017 was impacted by the one-time discrete items including an $11.6 million tax benefit related to the cessation of operations of the Spanish subsidiary.We expect the company’s effective tax rate to be around 20% in 2019.
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