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Urban Outfitters has achieved steady growth over 2015-2018 (ending January), with the company’s revenue increasing by 15% and expenses following a similar trend resulting in stable profits for the company. However, the growth in expenses is likely to outpace growth in revenues in the near term mainly due to faster growth in the cost of sales as well as minimal growth in Urban Outfitters’ Revenues for the year. This should result in Urban Outfitters’ earnings margin (i.e. revenues less all expenses, expressed as a percentage of revenues) to contract by 150 basis points from 7.5% in 2018 to an expected 6% in 2019 - representing a 20% decline in Urban Outfitters’ earnings.
Total Expenses were $3.7 Billion, with Cost of sales of $2.6 billion, and $1 Billion in Operating Expenses
Breakdown of Urban Outfitter's Total Expenses (2018):
Total: $3.7 Bil
Cost of Sales $2.6 Bil (71%)
Operating Expenses $1.0 Bil (27%)
Income tax expense $0.1 Bil (2%)
Urban Outfitters' Total Expenses Have Increased From $3.2 Billion in 2015 to $3.7 Billion in 2018
% Change in total expenses
Urban Outfitters’ total expenses have increased by 13.5% since 2015, going up from $3.2 billion to $3.65 billion in 2018 and are expected to grow by 3% in 2019. COGS have been the largest contributor to this increase, with the cost of sales increasing from $2.2 billion in 2015 to $2.6 billion in 2018.The company’s total expenses in absolute terms are expected to increase in 2019 as a decrease in selling expenses is likely to be offset by an expected increase likely to be driven by a combination of the rising cost of sales as well as operating expenses.Additionally, the company’s total expenses as % revenue are projected to increase by 150 basis points, from 92.5% in 2018 to 94% in 2019.
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1. Cost of Sales:
The Cost of Sales has increased from $2.2 Bil in 2015 to $2.6 Bil in 2018 mainly due to steady revenue growth. As the cost of sales has grown at a faster rate than the revenue, the Gross Profit Margin has contracted from 34.9% to 34.1% over the same period
Cost of sales
Gross profit margin
The cost of sales includes the expenses incurred to acquire and produce inventory for sale, including product costs, freight-in, and import costs. COGS is the largest expense driver, accounting for nearly 71% of the company’s total expenses in 2018.COGS have increased by 16% over the last few years, increasing from $2.2 billion in 2015 to $2.6 billion in 2018 primarily as a result of higher revenues.However, Urban Outfitters’ gross margin has shrunk by 80 basis points over the same time period due to deleverage in delivery and logistics expenses, lower initial merchandise mark ups and higher merchandise markdownsWe expect COGS to increase by 4% to $2.7 billion in 2019, representing a gross margin figure of 32.2%. This decline in gross margin can be attributed to higher markdowns, as well as lower wholesale segment margins.
2. Operating Expenses :
Urban Outfitters' Operating Expenses Include Selling, General & Administrative (SG&A) Costs. SG&A expenses have increased from $848 Mil in 2015 to $965 Mil in 2018. SG&A expense as % of revenue has decreased from 24.6% in 2015 to 24.4% in 2018
SG&A expenses as % of total revenue
Urban Outfitters’ operating expenses include selling, general and administrative expenses. Operating expenses have increased by 14% since 2015, increasing from $848 million to $965 million in 2018.However, operating expenses as % of revenues have marginally declined, from 24.6% in 2015 to around 24.4% in 2018 led by the net savings associated with the store reorganization project, partially offset by increased investments in digital marketing.We expect total operating expenses to nudge ahead to cross $975 million in 2019, representing 24.4% of total revenues of $4 billion.
3. Non-Operating Expense (Income) :
Urban Outfitters' Non-Operating Expenses Have Decreased From $4 million in 2015 to -$4 million in 2018 Driven by a combination of higher interest and other income
* Note: The company has no outstanding debt
Non-Operating expenses (income)
Interest Income As % Cash & Cash Equivalents
4. Income Tax Expense:Urban Outfitters' Income Tax Expense has fluctuated over the last few years, from $120 million in 2016 to around $153 million in 2017. This figure declined in 2018 due to the enactment of the US Tax Reform
Income tax expense (benefit)
Effective tax rate
The company's effective tax rate has been highly volatile, ranging from 58.6% in 2017 to around 22.7% in 2018. The company’s effective tax rate for 2017 included an additional income tax expense of $64.7 million related to the enactment of the Tax Reform, which negatively impacted the Company’s effective tax rate.The effective tax rate is expected to be around 25% in 2019.
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