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Trefis Has A Price Estimate Of $14 For Vale's Stock
Trefis Stock Price Estimate for Vale
Vale is the world leader in iron ore and iron ore pellets production, along with access to large reserves of nickel, copper, coal, etc.
China accounts for over 50% of iron ore fines and pellet shipments, with Asia as a whole accounting for close to 70% of iron ore shipments. Copper concentrates are sold to copper smelters in South America, Europe, India, and Asia
It competes with Cleveland-Cliffs, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, etc.
#1. Estimating Vale's Total Revenues:
Total Revenues have increased from $27.5 billion in 2016 to $26.6 billion in 2018, and could grow 8% to $39.5 Billion in 2019, followed by marginal decline of 1% to $39 Billion in 2020
Our Interactive Dashboard Analysis, How Does Vale Make Money?, Provides An In Depth View Of The Company's Revenues.
Total Revenue (A) = (a+b+c+d)
Iron Ore Revenue (a)
Iron Ore Pellet Revenue (b)
Nickel Revenue (c)
Other Revenue (d)
#2. Deriving Vale's Net Income:
Net Income grew from $4.0 billion in 2016 to $6.9 Billion in 2018, and we expect it to be around $8.6 billion in 2020
This growth will likely be led by higher margins and elevated revenue level
Total Revenue (A)
Net Income Margin (B)
Net Income (C) = (A * B)
Margin improvement to be driven by lower interest outgo, lower currency headwinds and premium pricing, partially offset by expenses related to the recent dam accident
#3. Determining Vale's EPS:
EPS has grown from $0.77 in 2016 to $1.32 in 2018, and we estimate it to be $1.67 in 2020
EPS growth from 2018 can be attributed to higher Net Income.
Net Income (C)
No of shares (D)
EPS (E) = (C / D)
#4. Estimating Vale's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $14 For Vale's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 8.5x P/E Multiple on expected 2020 EPS of $1.67
P/E Ratio (F)
Trefis Stock Price Estimate (E * F)
Comparing Vale's Historical P/E Multiple With That of Its Peers
P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of Q3, and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year
Vale P/E Multiple
Cleveland-Cliffs P/E Multiple
Rio Tinto P/E Multiple
Vale Revenues: How Does Vale Make Money?How Does Vale's Iron Ore and Pellet Business Compare With Its Peers?More Trefis Materials Data
DISAGREE WITH OUR FORECASTS? CREATE YOUR OWN
1. How to save your forecasts:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
With your forecast saved and named, you can see how well you forecast the company's performance at the end of each period and compare your forecasts to hundreds of other Trefis users who came up with their own forecasts. Lastly, you can share with friends and colleagues to show them how you fared and compare your forecasts to theirs.