Here are some sample widgets you could interact with from this dashboard:
How did Chevron's revenues change in Q1 2019?
Chevron's revenue fell in the first quarter of 2019. This due to lower realized crude and natural gas prices. Crude oil prices were on average 10% lower yoy while natural gas prices were 2% lower for the quarter then the same quarter in 2018. We expect prices to remain range bound in the coming quarters as a result of global crude demand-supply dynamics remaining relatively steady.
How did Chevron's expenses change in Q1 2019?
Operating expenses fell slightly as the cost of production reduced, this mainly due to improvements in technology, and higher margins from drilling. We expect that the trend will continue in the coming quarters, as new wells are drilled, primarily in Chevron's shale assets.
How have Chevron's Upstream & Downstream earnings trended over recent quarters?
Upstream and downstream earnings saw a decline over the quarter as lower prices took hold. This trend is expected to reverse through the year as key commodity prices are expected to improve.
Total Upstream Earnings
Total Downstream Earnings
QoQ average crude and nat-gas price realized by Chevron.
Average crude price has trended downwards starting in Q4 of 2018, with cuts in production and global supply being steady relative to global demand; we expect crude prices to remain steady.Nat-gas has seen some of the excess glut come down, but with supply continuing to be high we don't expect nat-gas prices to recover any time soon.
Average Crude Price
Average Henry Hub Gas Spot Price
How has Chevron's revenues changed over the last few years and what's our outlook for the year?
We expect total revenue to come down to $158 billion for the year this slightly below the revenue achieved in 2018. This again due to commodity prices being relatively lower. Demand is expect to remain relatively steady, as global demand is expected to firm up in the coming quarters.
What have been Chevron's expenses over the past couple of year and what are our expectations for 2019?
Exxons total expenses for the year are expected to come in at $29 billion this would be slightly higher as a percentage of revenue relative to historical levels. However expenses may come in at $26 billion if Chevron is able to improve its production costs on a wider range of rigs.
What has been Chevron's net income for the past couple of years and what do we expect in 2019?
What were the average realized crude price/ natural gas prices for Chevron and what's our expectation for 2019?
Our outlook for average realized crude price is $60 for the year - below the $65 realized in 2018. This as OPEC continues to ensure that the price of oil remains relatively steady, and the willingness of large oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia to cut supply as needed. Furthermore, shale gas continues to be a key factor, and with price of recovering oil increasing and wells drying up faster than expected, shale output is expected to fall considerably by the end of the year.
We expect that the average price realized for nat-gas in 2019 will be $2.9 - down from $3.5 in 2018. While nat-gas production volumes have come down globally, the glut in nat-gas is affecting prices. We believe prices will firm up, as some of that glut comes off.
Average Realized Crude Oil
Average Realized Nat-Gas
What is our Trefis estimate for Chevron's stock?
We have an estimate of $142 per share. This implies a forward earning of 18.9. With broader industry valuations at around 24 p/e we believe this is a reasonable estimate.
DISAGREE WITH OUR FORECASTS? CREATE YOUR OWN
1. How to save your forecasts for Chevron:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
With your forecast saved and named, you can see how well you forecast the company's performance at the end of each period and compare your forecasts to hundreds of other Trefis users who came up with their own forecasts. Lastly, you can share with friends and colleagues to show them how you fared and compare your forecasts to theirs.