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The Trefis Price Estimate For Union Pacific's Stock Is Around $177 Per Share
Trefis Price Estimate
Union Pacific is engaged in freight transportation in the western two-thirds of the United States.Its customers include chemical producers, industrial manufactures, agricultural companies, steel processors, and automotive companies among others. It competes with other railroad companies, including CSX Corporation and Norfolk Southern.
#1. Estimating Union Pacific's Total Revenues:
Total Revenues have increased from $19.9 billion in 2016 to $22.8 billion in 2018, and it could grow to $23.6 Billion by 2020.
Our Interactive Dashboard Analysis, UNP Revenues: How Does Union Pacific Make Money?, Provides An In Depth View Of The Company's Revenues.
Total Revenues = A + B + C + D + E
Comparing trends in Union Pacific's Total Revenues with that of its peers
Change In Union Pacific's Total Revenues
Change In CSX's Revenues
Change In Norfolk Southern's Revenues
#2. Deriving Union Pacific's Net Income:
Net Income grew from $4.2 billion in 2016 to $6.0 billion in 2018, and we expect it to be around $6.4 billion in 2020.
Our Interactive Dashboard Analysis, How Does Union Pacific Spend Its Money?, Provides More Details On The Company's Expenses.
Net Income = A x B
Net Income Margin (A)
Total Revenues (B)
#3. Determining Union Pacific's EPS:
EPS has grown from $5.05 in 2016 to $7.91 in 2018, and we estimate it to be $9.56 in 2020.
EPS growth can be attributed to higher Net Income and Revenues, and lower Shares Outstanding.
Earnings Per Share = A ÷ B
Net Income (A)
No. of Shares (B)
#4. Estimating Union Pacific's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $177 For Union Pacific's stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies an 18.6x P/E Multiple on expected 2020 EPS of $9.56.
Trefis Price Estimate = A x B
Price To Earnings Multiple (A)
Earnings Per Share (B)
Comparing Union Pacific's P/E Multiple Over The Last Three Years With That of Its Peers
P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of September of each year, and reported (or expected) Earnings for the full year.
Union Pacific's P/E Multiple
CSX's P/E Multiple
Norfolk Southern's P/E Multiple
Disagree With Our Forecasts? Create Your Own
1. How to save your forecasts for Union Pacific:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
With your forecast saved and named, you can compare your forecasts to hundreds of other Trefis users who came up with their own forecasts. Lastly, you can share with friends and colleagues to show them how you fared and compare your forecasts to theirs.