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HBO Max Could Bring In Over $4 Billion In U.S. Revenues By 2024
AT&T is expected to launch its new streaming service, HBO Max in May 2020, taking on the likes of Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu in the streaming market. While AT&T already offers some streaming services such as HBO Now, HBO Max is likely to be more significant as it will include a sizable library of content from not just HBO but also Warner Bros, Turner Broadcasting, and the DC Universe.AT&T has also indicated that it will invest an additional $4 billion in content for HBO Max over the next ~5 years.We estimate that the service could add incremental U.S. revenues of about $4.3 billion for AT&T by 2024. For perspective, AT&T is likely to post revenues of about $187 billion in 2019, with its Media operations likely to post revenues of over $35 billion.
A Closer Look At The Streaming Video Market In The U.S.
While Netflix had over 60 million U.S. subscribers as of 2018, Amazon's Prime offering, which includes a video service, has over 100 million customers. Hulu had about 25 million subscribers
Amazon Prime Users for 2016 and 2017 are estimates.
Netflix U.S. Subscribers
U.S. Amazon Prime Users
Estimating Incremental Revenues From HBO Max
HBO's TV channel reaches about ~140 million global TV subscribers and the company offers the HBO Now service as an a la cart streaming option with exclusive HBO content. It's likely that HBO Now users will get access to HBO Max - which will have a larger library of content -at no extra charge.We estimate HBO Max's incremental revenue potential by looking solely at the new customers that the service could bring in. We estimate that HBO Max will see an adoption by 8% of U.S. households by 2020, with the number rising to 16% by 2024, translating into a paying subscriber base of 10 million by 2020 and 21 million by 2024. At an ARPU of $15 per month in 2020, rising to $17 by 2024, we estimate that HBO Max will generate revenues of about $2 billion in 2020, with the number rising to close to $4.3 billion by 2024.
Where HBO Currently Stands
HBO Global Subscribers (Est.)
HBO Now Subscribers (Est.)
Netflix Ballooning Content Costs Have Eclipsed Revenue And Subscriber GrowthHow Netflix Compares With Streaming Aspirants AT&T, Disney, And Viacom?
U.S. Household Data: Census.gov
HBO Now and HBO Subscriber estimates: Statistica