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Intuitive Surgical is slated to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results on January 23, 2020. For full year 2019, Trefis estimates that the company will report:Revenues of $4.3 billion, reflecting 16.7% y-o-y growth, primarily driven by the company's instruments & accessories segment. Our revenue forecast is marginally lower than the consensus estimate of $4.4 billion.EPS figure will likely increase to $12.60 on an adjusted basis, primarily due to higher revenues, partly offset by slight decline in margins, as compared to the previous year. Our EPS figure forecast is slightly below the consensus estimate of $12.64.
We believe that lower-than-expected earnings for full year 2019 could result in a slight decline in Intuitive Surgical's stock price, post earnings announcement. In fact, our forecast indicates that Intuitive Surgical's valuation is $589 a share, which is slightly below the current price of ~ $600.
(1) Revenues Expected To Be Slightly Lower Than The Consensus Estimates
Trefis estimates Intuitive Surgical's 2019 revenues to be $4.3 billion, slightly lower than the consensus estimate of $4.4 billion.
Instruments & Accessories $2.4 Bil (55%)Systems $1.3 Bil (29%)Services $0.7 Bil (16%)
TOTAL $4.3 Bil *
Consensus $4.4 Bil
Surprise $(0.1) Bil
* Numbers don't add up due to rounding
(2) EPS Likely To Be Slightly Below The Consensus Estimates
Intuitive Surgical's 2019 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $12.60 per Trefis analysis, slightly below the consensus estimate of $12.64 per share.
Total Revenues $4.4 Bil
- Total Expenses $2.9 Bil
Net Income $1.5 Bil
÷ Shares Outstanding 118 Mil
(3) Stock Price Estimate ~ 2% Below The Market Price
Trefis forecast for Intuitive Surgical's full year 2019 earnings and P/E multiple are slightly below the market expectations, working out to a fair value of $589 for Intuitive Surgical's stock, which is roughly 2% lower than the current market price of around $600.
Intuitive Surgical's Share Price Estimate = A x B
P/E Multiple (A)
Adjusted EPS (B)
Details About Our Forecast For Intuitive Surgical (1) Revenues, (2) Adjusted EPS, and (3) P/E Multiple Follow:
(1) Revenues Will Likely Grow In Mid-Teens To $4.3 Billion In 2019
Total revenues have increased at an average annual rate of 16% from $2.7 billion in 2016 to $3.7 billion in 2018, primarily driven by the company's instruments & Accessories segment. It is expected to see a 16.7% growth in 2019, led by continued growth in its installed base driving revenues across the segments.
Total Revenues = A + B + C
Instruments & Accessories (A)
What About Revenues In 2020?
See Intuitive Surgical's Revenues - How Does ISRG Make Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's revenues along with our forecasts.
Key for 2020: Intuitive Surgical's revenue will likely grow in low-teens on average over 2019-2020, led by continued growth in the installed base of its robotic surgical products. The growth rate in 2020 is expected to slow when comapred to historical years, due to increased competition from other robotic devices manufacturers.
What About Expenses And Earnings In 2020?
See Intuitive Surgical Expenses - How Does ISRG Spend Its Money?
We provide an interactive, in-depth view of the company's expenses, and earnings margins
Key for 2020: We believe that revenue will continue to grow in low-teens, while expenses could also grow at marginally higher pace, resulting in the net income margin figure to decline to 34.5%. We currently forecast $14.00 EPS on an adjusted basis for 2020.
(3) A Trailing P/E Multiple of 46.7x Looks Appropriate For Intuitive Surgical's Stock, Which Is Slightly Lower Than The Current Implied P/E Multiple of 47.5x
We use our full cash flow model for Intuitive Surgical to arrive at a P/E multiple of 46.7x for a price estimate of $589.
Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year, and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year
Intuitive Surgical's P/E Multiple
Boston Scientific's P/E Multiple
Abbott's P/E Multiple
Medtronic P/E Multiple
Our complete set of analyses on Intuitive Surgical
1. How to save your forecasts for Intuitive Surgical:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
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