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Disney+ Could Bring In $4 Billion In U.S. Revenues By 2022
Disney's much anticipated streaming video service, Disney+, debuted earlier this month, as the media behemoth looks to challenge the likes of Netflix and the upcoming streaming offerings from AT&T and Comcast.The early response to the service has been strong, driven by Disney's formidable library of legacy content, affordable pricing ($7 per month) and some early partnerships with the likes of Verizon. Disney reported sign-ups of 10 million over the first day (the service offers 1 week free trial so it is possible that not all users will become paying subscribers) Overall we estimate that the service could bring in close to $4 billion in revenues from the U.S within 2 years. For perspective Disney posted revenues of about $70 billion in FY'19. In this analysis, we take a look at the current state of the streaming video market and size up the potential of Disney's service.
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A Closer Look At The Streaming Video Market In The U.S.
While Netflix had over 60 million U.S. subscribers as of 2018, Amazon's Prime offering, which includes a video service, has over 100 million customers. Hulu had about 25 million subscribers
Amazon Prime Users for 2016 and 2017 are estimates.
Netflix U.S. Subscribers
U.S. Amazon Prime Users
Estimating Disney+ Subscribers
We estimate that Disney+ will see an adoption by 20% of U.S. households by 2020, with the number rising to 34% by 2022.
This would translate into paying subscriber base of 26 million by 2020 and 44 million by 2022.
Disney+ Subscribers [A x B]
Number of U.S. Households [A]
% of U.S. Households Opting for Disney+ [B]
Estimating Disney+ Annual Revenue
At an ARPU of $7 per month, we estimate that Disney+ will garner revenues of about $2.2 billion in 2020, with the number rising to close to $4 billion by 2022.
Annual Revenue = [A x B x 12]
Monthly ARPU [A]
Disney+ Subscribers [B]
U.S. Household Data: Census.gov
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