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Trefis has a price estimate of $130 for P&G's stock
Trefis Price Estimate
Procter & Gamble is one of the largest manufacturers of consumer goods in the world with operations in over 180 countries. P&G manufactures and sells consumer goods across multiple product segments such as beauty, grooming, fabric care, health care, household care, and baby care.
P&G has built significant scale by acquiring popular brands such as Gillette, Wella Professional, Iams, and Ambi Pur.
Its competitors include other consumer goods heavyweights like Unilever, Kimberly-Clark, Colgate-Palmolive, and L'Oreal.
#1. Estimating Procter & Gamble's Total Revenues:
Total Revenue has increased from $65.06 billion in 2017 to $67.68 billion in 2019, and could grow ~4% to $70.57 Billion in 2020
Our Interactive Dashboard Analysis, Procter & Gamble Revenue: How Does P&G Make Money?, Provides An In Depth View Of The Company's Revenues.
Total Revenue (A+B+C+D+E)
Fabric Care & Home Care (A)
Baby Care, Feminine Care & Family Care (B)
Health Care (D)
#2. Deriving P&G's Net Income:
Net Income dropped from $9.86 billion in 2017 to $3.63 Billion in 2019, primarily due to the $8 billion Gillette write-down
However, we expect it to grow to around $12.29 billion in 2020, as net margins rise to levels above that in 2017.
This growth will likely be led by rising margins and higher revenues
Net Income (A*B)
Net Income Margin (A)
Total Revenue (B)
The drop in Net Income Margin in 2019, can be attributed to the $8 billion Gillette write-down.
#3. Determining P&G's EPS:
EPS has dropped from $3.80 in 2017 to $1.45 in 2019, and we estimate it to be $4.98 in 2020
Expected EPS growth in 2020 can be attributed to higher Net Income and lower Shares Outstanding.
Net Income (A)
Shares Outstanding (B)
#4. Estimating P&G's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $130 For P&G's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 26.1x P/E Multiple on expected 2020 EPS of $4.98
Trefis Price Estimate (AxB)
PE Multiple (B)
Comparing Procter & Gamble's Historical P/E Multiple With That of Its Peers
P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of Q4, and reported (or expected) Earnings for the full year
P&G P/E Multiple
Colgate P/E Multiple
Unilever P/E Multiple
Our complete set of analyses on Procter & Gamble
Disagree With Our Forecasts? Create Your Own
1. How to save your forecasts for Procter & Gamble:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
With your forecast saved and named, you can compare your forecasts to hundreds of other Trefis users who came up with their own forecasts. Lastly, you can share with friends and colleagues to show them how you fared and compare your forecasts to theirs.