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U.S. Bancorp is slated to release its Q4 and full-year 2019 results on January 15, 2020. For FY 2019, Trefis estimates that the company will report:Revenues would slightly increase to $22.9 billion primarily due to growth in consumer banking and card & payment services. However, it is slightly lower than the consensus estimate of $23.0 billion.EPS figure would improve to $4.34 primarily due to the expected drop in outstanding shares as compared to the previous year, however, the net income margin would shrink due to higher expenses. Further, the EPS figure would be marginally higher than the consensus estimate of $4.33.
Since the expected results are very close to the consensus estimate for FY 2019, it would not result in any significant movement in the U.S Bancorp's stock price once earnings are announced. In fact, our forecast indicates that U.S. Bancorp's valuation is $57 a share, which is roughly at the same level as its current price
(1) Revenues expected to be slightly below consensus estimates
Trefis estimates U.S. Bancorp's 2019 revenues to be $22.9 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $23.0 billion
Trefis Estimate of Total Revenues
(1) Consumer Banking $8.7 Bil (38%)
(2) Card & Payment Services $6.2 Bil (27%)
(3) Wholesale Banking $3.7 Bil (16%)
(4) Wealth Management $2.9 Bil (13%)
(5) Treasury & Corporate $1.4 Bil (6%)
TOTAL $22.9 Bil
Consensus $23.0 Bil
Surprise -($0.1) Bil
(2) EPS likely to marginally beat consensus estimates
U.S. Bancorp's 2019 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $4.34 per Trefis analysis, marginally higher than the consensus estimate of $4.33 per share
EPS - 2019E
Total Revenues $22.9 Bil
- Total Expenses $16.1 Bil(*)
Net Income $6.9 Bil (**)
÷ Shares Outstanding 1.6 Bil
(*) - The expense figure includes preferred dividend and other minority expenses
(**) - Numbers don't add up due to rounding
(3) Stock price estimate is identical to the market price
Trefis forecast for U.S. Bancorp's 2019 earnings as well as P/E multiple are in line with market expectations, working out to a fair value of $57 for U.S Bancorp's stock which is at the same level as the current market price of around $57.
U.S. Bancorp's Share Price [AxB]
EPS - 2019E [A]
Trailing P/E Multiple [B]
U.S Bancorp Stock (NYSE: USB)U.S Bancorp Revenues: How Does U.S Bancorp Make Money?All Trefis Industrials Company data
Detail about our forecast for U.S. Bancorp's (1) Revenues, (2) EPS, and (3) P/E Multiple follow:
Notably, U.S Bancorp is expected to add $800 million in incremental revenues over 2019-2020, enabling the bank to cross $23.3 billion by 2020.
Our interactive dashboard analysis, How Does U.S. Bancorp Make Money?, provides an in-depth view of the company's revenues along with our forecasts and a comparison of trends with peers Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Capital One.
For 2020, we believe that increase in revenues coupled with a slightly higher growth in expenses will result in the net income margin figure shrinking to 29.1%
(3) A trailing P/E multiple of 13.1x looks appropriate for U.S Bancorp's stock, which is same as the current implied P/E multiple of 13.1x
We use our full cash flow model for U.S. Bancorp to arrive at a P/E multiple of 13.1x for a price estimate of $57
Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year, and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year
P/E Multiple USB
P/E Multiple BAC
P/E Multiple WFC
P/E Multiple C
1. How to save your forecasts:
Click on the blue "Try Trefis" button in the header to create an account, then navigate back to this dashboard. Now, any changes you make to these inputs will be auto-saved as a scenario (see left panel of dashboard).
2. How to monitor your scenario vs. actual results
Once you've saved your forecast, you can "rename" your scenario by clicking on the gear icon next to the scenario (on the left panel). For more info, see this quick, 30-sec video (look at the 9 sec mark)
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