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What was Exxon's Total Upstream Production and Earnings?
Total liquids production trended higher YoY, while natural gas production fell slightly. Exxon has been struggling with production, and that combined with softer demand led to lower production and subsequently lower quarterly income. We expect that this a temporary cyclical issue, and that the output will increase both for liquids and natural gas in the coming quarters.
Total liquids production
Total natural gas production available for sale
Total - Upstream
What was Exxon's Total Downstream Production and Earnings?
Refinery output fell by 10% for the quarter, this was largely due to softer demand for Exxon's refinery products. Exxon continues to face stiff competition from large oil majors and state-owned oil companies, the oversupply from competition is pushing the price of refined products lower. This especially as there have calls to cut output. Furthermore, petroleum products sales fell slightly about 0.5% for the quarter on the back of soft demand. We expect that the second quarter will witness a slight rise.
Earnings for the quarter fell to $-256 million this was largely a result of higher operating and input costs for key products including gasoline, kerosene, and aviation fuel. We expect that earnings will recover slightly in the coming quarters
Total refinery throughput
Total petroleum product sales
Total - Downstream
What was Exxon's Chemical Production and Earnings?
Total chemical revenue fell from $ 1 billion to $518 million in the quarter. Exxon sells a range of products including various types of propriety rubber used in tires, to thermoplastics used in automobile frames. Demand for these products saw a downturn as global car sales softened for the quarter. We expect that revenue will head lower in the following quarters unless there is a pickup in global automobile sales.
Total chemical prime product sales
Total - Chemical
Total - Chemical Revenue
What was Exxon's Capital and Expenditure Costs?
Capital and expenditure costs rose 41% this mainly as Exxon is looking to bring on a whole new set of crude production and refinery production online. These new facilities will have lower per unit costs, that should improve the company's cash flow. The company also spend higher capex on replenishing drilling wells for the quarter, these drilling wells are largely situated the Permian shale.
Total Capital and Exploration Expenditures
Total Capital and Exploration Expenditures
What Have Been the Trends for Nat-Gas Prices and What is Our Outlook?
We expect that average realized U.S natural gas prices to be $2.8 for the year, and we expect that non-U.S natural gases price to be around $7.0 for the year. Natural Gas prices have trended lower on oversupply during the past few quarters, supply is expected to steady out in the coming quarters.
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Non United States Natural Gas
Non United States Natural Gas
Crude Oil Price Over the Quarters in 2019:
Crude oil prices have trended higher in the recent quarters and we expect them to settle around $60-62/b in the coming quarters. Crude oil, in general,has trended higher as supply was lowered from OPEC. With shale efficiency hitting diminishing returns we expect supply to remain steady through the next few quarters.
Crude Oil - U.S
Crude Oil - U.S
Non United States Crude Oil
Non United States Crude Oil
What is Our Expectation for Exxon's Revenue in 2019? And What Have Been The Trends For Revenue in the Past Few Years.
We expect revenue to trend lower for the year mainly on the back of weaker demand for downstream and chemical products. We there expect that revenue will in at $283 billion for the year as a result.
Total Revenue
Total Revenue
What are Our Expectations for Exxon's Expenses in 2019, and What Has Been the Trend Over the Past Few Years?
Expenses have been trending lower as demand softens, this combined with lower unit costs associated with upstream operations. We expect operating costs to be around $34 billion for the year this below $36.5 billion witnessed in 2018. Exxon has been investing in drilling and refining technology in order to reduce costs this has helped lower unit costs of the past few years.
Total Expenses
Total Expenses
What Can We Expect of Exxons Net Income in 2019?
Exxons net income is expected to fall to $18.5 billion for the year this below the $20.8 billion net income that the company saw in 2018. Again this is largely in trend with the softer demand across segments.
Net Income
Net Income
What is Our Expectation for Exxon's Earnings Per Share; and What is Our Subsequent Trefis Estimate for the Stock?
EPS
Shares Outstanding
Trefis Estimate
What is Our Estimate for Exxon's Stock?
Our Trefis Estimate for Exxon's Stock is $84 for the stock this would imply a forward p/e of 20. This we believe is a reasonable estimate based on the projected price of crude and broader market valuations.