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Much has been discussed about the relationship between the weather and the spread of the Coronavirus, more specifically if the pandemic will slow down as the summer approaches.Although there isn't much scientific evidence to back this up, colder places have generally been worse affected by the pandemic and it also appears that the spread of the infection is slowing as the weather warms up.In this analysis, we take a look at how Coronavirus infections have trended in two colder states of the U.S. - New York and Michigan and contrast it with relatively sunny Florida and California. We also provide data on the change in weather in these states over the last 2 months.To be sure, there are other factors that we have not accounted for this in the following analysis such as population density, the adoption of social distancing and public health interventions that impact the numbers between states.
Colder states such as NY and MI have seen a higher number of Coronavirus cases compared to warmer states like FL and CA. New York, which has an average temperature of 48°F, had 16.5k cases per million people as of 5/4. The number grew* at a rate of 11%. In comparison, California had a total of 1.4k cases per million people. The number grew* at about 7% per day. It took NY just 6 days to go from 100 cases per million to 1000 cases per million. In comparison, it took 29 days for California.
* Daily Growth Rate of Total Cases calculated as the rate of growth from when a state crossed 100 cases per million to number of cases per million as of 5/4/2020.
Average Temprature (F)
Cases Per Million Population (5/4/2020)
Average Daily Growth Rate From 100 Cases/ Mil *
Days From 100 Cases to 1000 Cases/Mil
Florida Department of Health, Division of Disease Control and Health ProtectionNY State Department of HealthMichigan COVID-19 SummaryCalifornia Department of Public Health