Estimating Lyft's Valuation Ahead Of Its IPO
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Lyft filed to go public on March 1, 2019, with a reported target valuation range of $20 - 25 billion. Lyft's latest funding round, a $600 million Series I announced in June 2018, valued the company at around $15 billion. The company's S-1 filing divulged details about the company's operating metrics and revenue growth, as well as the magnitude of its cash burn and net losses, which remain substantial.This dashboard shows Lyft's key operating metrics, as well as our forecasts for 2019 and our valuation estimate. You can modify any of the blue dots on these charts to come up with your own forecasts and valuation estimate for Lyft.
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Strong Growth In Active Riders Likely To Continue
Total Active Riders [A]
Average Number Of Rides Per Rider [B]
Total Number of Rides Per Year [C = A x B]
Lyft saw over 100% growth in total active riders in 2017, and another 60% for 2018. Its average rides per user are still growing, but at a slower pace. Overall we forecast total rides to increase nearly 50% to over 900 million for 2019, compared to 65% growth in 2018.
Stable Revenue Per Ride, Growth In Number Of Rides - Key Revenue Drivers
Total Number of Rides [A]
Gross Revenue Per Ride [B]
Gross Revenue [C = A x B]
We expect the company's total rides to increase steadily, while the growth in revenue per ride will likely moderate. We forecast over $12 billion in gross revenues for 2019.
Lyft's Share Of Gross Revenue Likely To Stabilize In 20-25% Range Long Term
x Lyft's Share Of Revenue
Lyft crossed $1 billion in revenues in 2017, and $2 billion in 2018. We forecast the company's revenue growth to slow down to around 40% in 2019, which would lead to $3 billion in net revenues.
How Does Lyft Compare With Uber?
Revenue Growth 2017
Revenue Growth 2018
Uber - Net Revenue
Lyft registered over 100% revenue growth in 2018. Uber's revenue reportedly slowed down to just over 40% in 2018, though its revenue is significantly higher than Lyft's.
Lyft's Valuation Based On 2019 Forecasts
x Lyft Revenue Multiple
In its latest funding round Lyft was valued at $15 billion. Based on our near-term forecasts for the company, and a forward revenue multiple of 7.5x, we estimate the company's fundamental value at about $23 billion.