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OVERVIEW
U.S. Legal Cannabis Market Size
The U.S. legal cannabis industry has grown from roughly $5.7 billion in size in 2015 to $8.5 billion in 2017 as several U.S. states legalized the use of cannabis for recreational purposes, even as most states now allow the medical use of cannabis.
We believe that the U.S. legal cannabis market will swell to almost $25 billion in size by 2022 even if all states maintain status quo in terms of the legalization of cannabis. With many U.S. states likely to vote on measures to ease cannabis use over coming years, our estimate is essentially a worst-case scenario for the industry - highlighting the significant growth potential that exists.
Additionally, this dashboard details the current legal status of cannabis use in each of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, and allows you to visualize how any change in the status for an individual state impacts the U.S. legal cannabis market size.
We estimate the size of the U.S. Cannabis Industry in 3 simple steps:
Step 1: Forecasting the potential number of U.S. citizens that are likely to use cannabis for recreational or medical purposes legally based on state-level changes to cannabis lawsStep 2: Using the potential number of legal cannabis users from above with our estimates for the average spend for a legal cannabis user over a week to arrive at total potential cannabis market sizeStep 3: As there could be a period of several years between the time cannabis use is legalized in a state and the time it is available to all potential users, we factor that in through our forecast for a U.S.-wide market penetration figure to arrive at the estimate for the actual size of the U.S. cannabis market
Step 1: Potential Number of Legal Cannabis Users Across The U.S.
Potential Legal Cannabis Users
This chart captures our forecast for potential number of legal cannabis users in the U.S. at the end of each year based on:
The legality of cannabis use in each state (detailed further below)Our assumptions about percentage of U.S. population likely to use cannabis regularly for recreational / medical purposesOur forecast for the population of each state using the CAGR for 2014-17
Step 1 Assumptions [Click to Expand]: The assumptions in this section help us arrive at the maximum number of potential cannabis users across states where cannabis use is legal in one form or the other
Adult Population as % of Total U.S. Population
Estimated Recreational User Percentage In Legal States
Estimated Medical User Percentage in Legal States
Detailed forecasts for the population of each U.S. state and inputs regarding the legal status of cannabis in each state is shown in sections further below
Step 2: Total Potential U.S. Cannabis Market Size
We arrive at this metric using our assumptions for average weekly cannabis spend per cannabis along with our forecast for the potential legal cannabis users in Step 1
Potential Cannabis Market Size
Avg. Weekly Spend per Recreational Cannabis User
Avg. Weekly Spend per Medical Cannabis User
Step 3: U.S. Legal Cannabis Market Size
The marker penetration figure here is the estimated proportion of the total addressable market (shown in Step 2) that actually has access to legal cannabis, as the roll-out of sales in states where legislation has been relaxed recently will take some time
U.S. Legal Cannabis Market Size [= A x B ]
Potential Cannabis Market Size [A]
Market Penetration [B]
STATE-LEVEL DATA:
The following sections lists the legal status of cannabis in each U.S. state, and allows you to see how changes to the legal status in a particular state impacts the total number of legal cannabis users in the country as well as the total size of the cannabis market. We have categorized the states in terms of the current legal status of cannabis in each of them, as the ones with more relaxed laws are more likely to fully legalize cannabis use in the near future.
How To Modify State-Level Parameters:
Scroll through the list of states below to locate the one you are interested in. You can also use your browser's "Find" functionality (Ctrl+F) to directly search for a state by nameClick on the arrow next to the name of the state to expand the sectionIf you think cannabis laws will be relaxed in the state before 2022, click on what you think it is likely to be in the "Cannabis Legal Status" radio buttonOnce you do this, select the year you think the change will be implemented in (this chart shows "2023 or Later" by default)
Do this for all states you think will legalize cannabis use in some form over the next five years, and see the impact on the totals here.
And don't forget to share your scenario so that others can also see where you think the industry is headed.
Summary of Outputs
U.S. Legal Cannabis Market Size
Maximum Potential Market Size
Potential Legal Cannabis Users
U.S. Total Population
These charts will change based on your state-level inputs below
States Where Recreational Use of Cannabis is Legal
For these states, the only parameter that impacts our forecast for the size of the U.S. cannabis market is the rate at which potential users have access to cannabis - summarized as a part of the "Market Penetration" metric above
This includes the states of Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont and Washington, and the District of Columbia
States Where Medical Use of Cannabis is Legal, and Recreational Use is Decriminalized
These states are the ones most likely to legalize recreational use of cannabis over coming years
Connecticut
Cannabis Legal Status In Connecticut:
Recreational Use Legal In Connecticut From:
Delaware
Cannabis Legal Status In Delaware:
Recreational Use Legal In Delaware From:
Illinois
Cannabis Legal Status In Illinois:
Legalization Expected In Illinois From:
Maryland
Cannabis Legal Status In Maryland:
Recreational Use Legal In Maryland From:
Minnesota
Cannabis Legal Status In Minnesota:
Recreational Use Legal In Minnesota From:
New Hampshire
Cannabis Legal Status In New Hampshire:
Recreational Use Legal In New Hampshire From:
New York
Cannabis Legal Status In New York:
Recreational Use Legal In New York From:
Ohio
Cannabis Legal Status In Ohio:
Recreational Use Legal In Ohio From:
Rhode Island
Cannabis Legal Status In Rhode Island:
Recreational Use Legal In Rhode Island From:
States Where Medical Use of Cannabis is Legal, but Recreational Use is Illegal
Some of these states are likely to legalize recreational use of cannabis within five years
Arizona
Cannabis Legal Status In Arizona:
Recreational Use Legal In Arizona From:
Arkansas
Cannabis Legal Status In Arkansas:
Recreational Use Legal In Arkansas From:
Florida
Cannabis Legal Status In Florida:
Recreational Use Legal In Florida From:
Hawaii
Cannabis Legal Status In Hawaii:
Recreational Use Legal In Hawaii From:
Louisiana
Cannabis Legal Status In Louisiana:
Recreational Use Legal In Louisiana From:
Michigan
Cannabis Legal Status In Michigan:
Recreational Use Legal In Michigan From:
Montana
Cannabis Legal Status In Montana:
Recreational Use Legal In Montana From:
New Jersey
Cannabis Legal Status In New Jersey:
Recreational Use Legal In New Jersey From:
New Mexico
Cannabis Legal Status In New Mexico:
Recreational Use Legal In New Mexico From:
North Dakota
Cannabis Legal Status In North Dakota:
Recreational Use Legal In North Dakota From:
Oklahoma
Cannabis Legal Status In Oklahoma:
Recreational Use Legal In Oklahoma From:
Pennsylvania
Cannabis Legal Status In Pennsylvania:
Recreational Use Legal In Pennsylvania From:
West Virginia
Cannabis Legal Status In West Virginia:
Recreational Use Legal In West Virginia From:
States Permitting Restricted Medical Use (Usually Allowing CBD Oil Only)
These states could potentially legalize medical use of cannabis in the near future, but recreational use is likely to remain restricted the next five years
Note: The year shown in the "Medical Use Legal From" chart for these states by default is the year in which use of CBD Oil was legalized
States Where Any Form Of Cannabis Use Is Illegal
These states are likely to hold out on cannabis legalization in the near future, with a possible legalization of medical cannabis use under specific conditions the most likely change (if any) in the next five years