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How did UPS's various segments fare over recent quarters?
Revenue was largely driven by domestic demand in the quarter, as e-commerce deliveries drove the company's sales. With the global economy slowing down international package delivery remain relatively stable, meanwhile freight revenue's fell due as a result of soft macro-demand.
Supply Chain and Freight
How Have UPS's expenses trended over the last five quarters?
With wage inflation going up, UPS saw an increase in compensation costs in the first quarter,this increase was largely localized. But with UPS investing in processing centers, we expect expenses to fall. The investments in supply chain should drive down unit costs for the company.
Total operating expenses
Total operating expenses
What was UPS's operating profit QoQ?
Operating profit fell as higher costs took hold. This was largely a result of higher wages. Rising wage inflation has been weighing on the company but we expect that wage pressure will subside in the coming months.
Total operating profit
Change in Total operating profit
How has UPS's EPS trended over recent quarters? And what's our expectation going forward?
We expect that EPS will come back to above trend growth, this as input costs subside. In addition to costs we expect that revenue will be higher next quarter as global macro factors may not weigh on revenue as much as they have in the first quarter
EPS QoQ 2018
EPS QoQ 2018
What has been UPS's trend for revenue/cost of revenue/gross profit? And what's our outlook for 2019?
We expect that UPS will revenue will come in higher for the year this largely on the back of global macro demand being more robust second quarter onwards. Risks due to remain in terms of lower revenue, this largely a result of: tariffs, softness in global demand largely due to Europe, and potentially tighter monetary policy.
What's been UPS's trend over the past couple of years for SG&A, and operating expenses and what's our outlook for 2019?
Expenses continue to rise on the SG&A side, largely on the back of higher administrative costs. We expect the growth of administrative expenses to slow in the coming months. Operating expenses are expected to go down as a result of UPS's investment in processing centers .
What has been the trend for net income and what's our expectation for 2019?
Net income is expected to rise slightly, as a result of higher revenues and lower costs.
What is expectation for UPS' EPS and how will it affect our Trefis Estimate?
Taken together with our estimate of 16.9x for UPS's forward P/E multiple, this works out to a $126 price estimate for the company's stock.
UPS is expected to deliver an EPS of $7.46 for the the year. This largely based on a couple factors.
Firstly while global trade has hit a 10 year-low, we believe the air transport freight industry will largely remain robust. With key central banks no longer tightening monetary conditions, global demand should improve in the coming quarters, which then will improve revenues for UPS.Furthermore, we expect higher unit revenues, and lower unit costs. Higher revenues will largely be a result of package pricing in e-commerce, where the race to the bottom largely led by Amazon should subside. Secondly, with UPS bringing on newer processing centers, that have higher levels of automation we expect unit costs to reduce going forward.
Regardless, we believe there are risks to UPS's revenue, with global trade slowing down, and Europe showing early signs of recession. This could weigh on order flow, and may affect freight revenues. Trade wars will also affect UPS's earnings, but the effects are expected to be largely benign as the products affected by the trade conflict, are largely transported by the shipping industry. Finally, while central banks have stopped tightening monetary conditions, the higher interest rates should reduce money supply. This, combined with the inverted yield curve, may weigh on global consumption.