Here are some sample widgets you could interact with from this dashboard:
Tesla's stock could lose 35% of its value with the possibility of a severe impact to its China operations in 2020 due to the fears surrounding the coronavirus outbreak.While Tesla's Chinese business is actually set for a nice ramp up this year after the company completed building out of its Shanghai Gigafactory in record time, the lock down of cities in China, and business or transport turning into anything but normal, this could mean Tesla producing little, and not selling much in the country this year.Under the coronavirus scenario (Shown in blue in the charts below) we assume that Tesla's China sales decline 50% vs. 2019, versus our base case which estimates that Chinese sales will grow almost 3x. We also estimate that Tesla's valuation multiple could decline marginally due to the uncertainty, causing its stock to fall to levels of $365, about 35% below the current market price.Below we highlight specifics for this 2020 scenario, as Companion to our Tesla Valuation: base case, as well as our Tesla Upside and Tesla Downside cases.
The complete opposite possible? Elon Musk could turn the coronavirus scare around in his favor and pull off something really hard. The Tesla model S and X have an advanced air filter system which gives these vehicles a 'Bioweapon Defense Mode'This feature could be used as a selling point under the circumstances, and could result in a significant upside for Tesla - perhaps even sponsored by the Chinese government
Whichever way the stock goes near term, a focus on fundamentals is the prudent way forward for all investors in Tesla.
Given The Coronavirus Outbreak:Tesla's China Deliveries could reduce considerably from an estimated 140K for the year to just 20KIn view of the resulting sharp reduction in cash flows, investors could assign a lower P/S multiple to Tesla's stock
Taken together, this could drive Tesla's stock 35% lower from $565 now to just $365 in a matter of days - a situation that is not difficult to imagine given that Tesla's stock has historically been very volatile.
Tesla China Deliveries (Est)
Tesla P/S Multiple
Tesla Stock Price
The Following Sections Detail The Relation Between Tesla's China Deliveries And Its Stock Price:
What If Tesla's Focus On The 'Bioweapon Defense Mode' Increases Delivery Numbers Higher Than Our Base Case Estimate?
You can see how this will affect Tesla's stock price by increasing China Deliveries in the charts above