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has seen some volatility this year, driven by declining iron ore volume due to production cuts following a major dam accident at one of its sites in Brazil. Overall, brokerage firms still remain bullish on the stock, with an average price estimate of close to $16.90 per share, mainly due to premium pricing of its high-grade pellet output. In this analysis, we look at how the top brokerage firms view Vale stock, and how their price targets have changed over time.
1. Top Banks are mixed in their views: JPMorgan and Credit Suisse are ~50-60% ahead of the market, while Barclays is about 24% ahead of the market
JPMorgan is most bullish on Vale with a $18.50 price target, followed by Credit Suisse with a price target of $18. Compared to these, Barclays is estimating an upside of about 24% on the stock, with a target of $14.20 per share. This implies an average price target of $16.90, ahead of Vale's current market price.
Current Price Target
Average Price Target
4. Top 3 banks' consensus target at start of year [SoY] correctly predicted the direction of end of year [EoY] stock price for 2017, but missed for 2018 and 2019
SoY = Start of the Year ; EoY = End of the Year
2017 [1. Start Price; 2. Target; 3. End Price]
2018 [1. Start Price; 2. Target; 3. End Price]
2019 [1. Start Price; 2. Target; 3. August Price]
6. Vale's key fundamental multiples (price/sales and price/earnings) have moved in tandem with the S&P 500 Index through 2016 to 2018. However, 2019 expected P/E is unlikely to move in line with the index
FY 2019 is likely to see a sharp rise in Vale's EPS due to its deleveraging program and stable foreign currency, along with a rise in pellet pricing. However, the P/E ratio is expected to face some pressure as the market seems to still be unsure of the extent of repercussions of the Brazil dam accident in January 2019.
Vale P/S (TTM)
Vale P/E (TTM)
S&P 500 Index
The top banks may not have accurately predicted Vale's stock price over recent years, though they were largely correct in terms of direction in 2017. The stock price saw some sharp movements in 2018 and 2019 due to macro-economic headwinds and unexpected operational issues.Overall, with top banks becoming more bullish on Vale post its Q1 2019 earnings release, this might bode well for Vale stock and fundamentals.
Vale Revenues: How Does Vale Make Money?Vale Valuation: Expensive or Cheap?How Does Vale's Iron Ore and Pellet Business Compare With Its Peers?More Trefis Materials Data
* We calculate the consensus target for a given year as the average of the first price target issued by each bank for that year.