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In this analysis, we compare the number of U.S. cases of novel Coronavirus with China and Italy - the two worst impacted countries - and take a look at where infections in the U.S. could be headed and what this could mean for the stock markets.Based on on data from containment success in China, it is possible that U.S. cases of Coronavirus could continue to spread for another two to three weeks before containment, which could possibly happen around mid-April, plateauing at levels of around 15k. The cases per million in the U.S grew from 0.5 per million on March 4 to 3.9 per million on March 11 and to 14.3 per million on March 16. This trajectory looks like it's closely tracking China's path in the early days and not that of Italy and other countries.For perspective China saw cases grow from 0.4 per million for the week ended Jan 22, to 5.4 per million for Jan 29 and 19.5 per million on Feb 5th.If we assume that the U.S. follows a similar trajectory as China did, going forward, it is possible that cumulative cases could begin to flatten off by the middle of April at levels of around 13.5k
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Daily New Cases & Cumulative Coronavirus Cases In The U.S.
New Cases - Feb 15 to Mar 15
Cumulative Cases - Feb 15 to Mar 16
Total Cases Per Million In U.S. Vs. China & Italy
As of March 16, Italy had a total of 462 cases per million people, compared to 56 for China and just over 14 for the U.S.
U.S. Cases Normalized, Per Million
China Cases Normalized, Per Million
Italy Cases Normalized, Per Million
Growth In Total Number Of Cases:
Between March 11 and 16, U.S. cases saw the largest increase, rising by 262% compared to 125% for Italy and just 0.1% for China
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Growth
China Coronavirus Cases Growth
Italy Coronavirus Cases Growth
If Growth In U.S. Cases Tracks China, Containment Could Occur Around Mid-May, With About 14k Cases The cases per million trajectory in the U.S grew from 0.5 per million as of March 4, going to 3.9 per million as of March 11 and 14.3 per million as of March 16 , looks more like it's closely tracking China's path in the early days than that of Italy and other countries.For perspective China saw cases grow from 0.4 per million for the week ended Jan 22, 5.4 for Jan 29 and 19.5 on Feb 5th.If we assume that the U.S. follows a similar trajectory as China did, going forward, posting 110%, 27%, 5% and 2% growth in cases over the next four weeks (shown in charts below), its possible that cumulative cases could begin to flatten off by the middle of April at levels of around 13,500 cases, considering a U.S. population of 330 million.
U.S. Total Cases