With Covid-19 Cases Falling Again Will Abbott Stock See Higher Levels?

[Updated: Sep 29, 2021] Abbott Stock Decline

The stock price of Abbott (NYSE:ABT) has seen a drop of 5% over the last one month (twenty-one trading days). It reached its 52-week high level of around $130 on September 13, before a slight decline to levels of $119 currently. Given a decline in the number of new Covid-19 cases in the U.S., over the recent weeks, the demand for Covid-19 testing is likely to fall, impacting Abbott’s diagnostics sales. After the recent fall, ABT stock is now up just 9% year-to-date, underperforming the broader indices, with the S&P500 up 18%. ABT stock has been weighed down over concerns of declining Covid-19 testing demand (compared to last year), which bolstered the company’s earnings growth during the pandemic. 

But now that ABT stock has seen a small decline of 5% over the last month or so, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of a rise in ABT stock over the next month. Out of 267 instances in the last ten years that ABT stock saw a twenty-one day change of -5% or more, 175 of them resulted in ABT stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 175 out of 267, or about a 66% chance of a rise in ABT stock over the coming month, implying that the stock may rise in the near term. See our analysis on Abbott Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that ABT stock will rise to higher levels going forward. Also, Abbott Stock Return summarizes ABT stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

• After moving -5.1% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 56% of the occasions.
• After moving -6.5% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 53% of the occasions
• After moving -4.7% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 66% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Stock Return: AI Predicts ABT Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

• Five-Day Return: BSX highest at 0.7%; ABT lowest at -5.1%
• Ten-Day Return: DXCM highest at -1%; ABT lowest at -6.5%
• Twenty-One Day Return: BAX highest at 9.1%; JNJ lowest at -5.9%

[Updated: Sep 3, 2021] Abbott Stock Update

The stock price of Abbott (NYSE:ABT) has seen a rise of around 20% since early June this year. The company’s Q2 results were comfortably  above our as well as the consensus estimates driven by continued demand for Covid-19 testing. In fact, the company garnered $1.3 billion in sales from the Covid-19 testing in Q2. Now, there has been a rise of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. due to the spread of the delta variant. The seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases rose from around 12,000 cases toward the end of June this year to over 160,000 currently. This has again resulted a sharp increase in demand for Covid-19 testing, especially the at-home testing kits, including Abbott’s BinaxNOW. This will result in an increased contribution to Abbott’s top-line in the near term.

Furthermore, the company’s other businesses also have seen a rebound with 12% growth in businesses other than the Covid-19 testing. With a rise in vaccination rates, the total procedure volume is expected to see higher levels going forward, boding well for Abbott’s medical devices business. The company yesterday announced the acquisition of Walk Vascular to strengthen its peripheral vascular offerings. Walk Vascular’s JETi Peripheral Thrombectomy System and JETi AIO Peripheral Thrombectomy System are unique aspiration systems for the removal of intravascular clots, and both of them are approved by the U.S. FDA and they have also received the CE Mark in Europe. ^[1].

Although there are multiple positive triggers for ABT stock, going by our Abbott Valuation of $130 per share based on $4.42 EPS and 29x P/E multiple, it appears that ABT stock is fully valued at its current levels. Now, with the recent rise in demand for at-home Covid-19 testing kits, Abbott may see better earnings growth for the full-year. That said, we believe it will be better for investors willing to buy Abbott stock to wait for a dip to enter. Also, the average of analysts’ price estimates for Abbott currently stands at $132, marginally ahead of its current market price of $128.

[Updated: Jul 20, 2021] Abbott Q2 Earnings Preview

Abbott (NYSE:ABT) is scheduled to report its Q2 2021 results on Thursday, July 22. We expect Abbott to report revenues and earnings above the consensus estimates, driven by continued growth in diagnostics business, along with a rebound in demand for medical devices. We expect the company to navigate well based on these trends over the latest quarter, and ABT stock to rise in the near term. Trefis’ forecast indicates that Abbott’s valuation is $132 per share, which is 11% higher than the current market price of around $119. Our interactive dashboard analysis on Abbott’s Pre-Earnings has additional details.

(1) Revenues expected to be above the consensus estimates

Trefis estimates Abbott’s Q2 2021 revenues to be around $9.85 Bil, compared to the $9.69 Bil consensus estimate. Abbott in Q2 2020 saw a significant decline in medical devices revenue, due to deferment of elective surgeries given the spread of Covid-19. Now that nearly half of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated, and on the international front, most of the countries have undertaken large-scale vaccination programs, the healthcare institutions now have more resources to address the surgeries that were postponed earlier, and people are also more confident heading out, compared to the lockdowns in Q2 last year, implying a rebound for Abbott’s medical devices business. In fact, Abbott’s medical devices sales were also up 13% in Q1 this year.

Looking at the company’s diagnostics business, the sales are expected to continue to remain very high in Q2 as well, after seeing a massive 120% rise in Q1 of this year. This can be attributed to high demand for Covid-19 testing. However, now that the Covid-19 vaccination rate is on a rise, the overall demand for testing is expected to come down over the coming quarters, and it will impact the overall sales growth of the company’s diagnostics business in the quarters to come. This factor was also responsible for a 10% drop in ABT stock a couple of months back. Our dashboard on Abbott Revenues offers more details on the company’s segments.

2) EPS likely to top the consensus estimates

Abbott’s Q2 2021 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $1.07 per Trefis analysis, 5% above the consensus estimate of $1.02. Abbott’s adjusted net income of $2.4 Bil in Q1 2021 reflected a large 2x growth from its $1.2 Bil figure in the prior-year quarter. This can be attributed to higher revenues and over 750 bps rise in net margins. The company’s operating expenses, including R&D and SG&A grew at a slower pace compared to the revenue growth. This trend is expected to continue in Q2 as well, bolstering the overall earnings growth. For the full-year, we expect the adjusted EPS to be higher at $4.55 compared to $3.67 in 2020.

(3) Stock price estimate 11% higher than the current market price

Going by our Abbott’s Valuation, with an EPS estimate of around $4.55 and a P/E multiple of around 29x in 2021, this translates into a price of $132, which is 11% above the current market price of around $119. At current levels of $119, Abbott is trading at 26x its expected EPS of $4.55 in 2021, and the 26x figure compares with levels of 30x seen as recently as late 2020, and 27x seen in late 2019, implying there is more room for growth for ABT stock.

Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year

While ABT stock may be undervalued, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Pfizer vs Merck.

1. Abbott’s Press Release, Sep 2, 2021 [↩]